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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

888 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Exploring Prediction Markets and Crypto Trends: Insights from a16z

Exploring Prediction Markets and Crypto Trends: Insights from a16z

The post Exploring Prediction Markets and Crypto Trends: Insights from a16z appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Timothy Morano Sep 27, 2025 17:23 Discover the resurgence of prediction markets, strategic fundraising advice, and the evolving role of blockchain expertise in hiring, according to insights from a16z crypto editorial. Prediction markets are experiencing renewed interest, becoming a focal point of conversation across various platforms, including popular culture references like South Park. According to a16z crypto editorial, these markets are gaining traction due to their potential in forecasting outcomes by harnessing collective intelligence. Experts like Alex Tabarrok, Scott Kominers, and Sonal Chokshi delve into the mechanics and applications of prediction markets, highlighting their relevance in today’s tech-driven world. Understanding Prediction Markets Prediction markets function by allowing individuals to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. This mechanism enables the aggregation of diverse opinions, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. The discussion by a16z emphasizes the markets’ compatibility with emerging technologies such as AI and blockchain, especially in contexts like futarchy and scientific publishing. Fundraising Strategies for Founders In the realm of fundraising, a16z provides critical advice for startup founders. The editorial advises against relying on opportunistic approaches, such as hoping to be preempted in fundraising rounds. Instead, it suggests a return to traditional, structured venture capital pitching. This strategy involves a deliberate process, focusing on building strong fundamentals rather than relying on market anomalies like those seen during the 2020-2021 period. Hiring in the Crypto Industry The crypto industry’s rapid growth raises important questions about hiring practices. Should companies prioritize candidates with crypto-native experience, or should they focus on adaptable individuals who can learn quickly? a16z’s guide aims to assist recruiters in identifying when blockchain expertise is essential and when broader skill sets might suffice. This approach helps in addressing the unique challenges posed by the dynamic nature of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/28

Understanding Prediction Markets: Insights from Experts

Understanding Prediction Markets: Insights from Experts

The post Understanding Prediction Markets: Insights from Experts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Sep 26, 2025 21:40 Explore the intricacies of prediction markets with insights from experts Scott Duke Kominers, Alex Tabarrok, and Sonal Chokshi. Learn about their design, functionality, and potential applications. Prediction markets have resurfaced as a topic of interest, offering a unique mechanism for forecasting future events. These markets, which aggregate information from various participants, are gaining attention for their potential to accurately predict outcomes, according to experts Scott Duke Kominers, Alex Tabarrok, and Sonal Chokshi. What Are Prediction Markets? Prediction markets function by allowing participants to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. The market price of these contracts reflects the collective probability of an event occurring, as perceived by the participants. As Alex Tabarrok, a professor of economics at George Mason University, explains, these markets are often more reliable than traditional polls or complex statistical models because they aggregate diverse information. The Mechanics Behind Prediction Markets Scott Kominers, a research partner at a16z crypto and a professor at Harvard Business School, emphasizes that prediction markets serve as information aggregation mechanisms. They collect and synthesize private forecasts from participants, leading to price discovery similar to that seen in financial and commodities markets. This aggregation of information often results in more accurate predictions compared to individual estimates. Applications and Challenges While prediction markets are a powerful tool, they are not without challenges. The potential for manipulation exists, especially when participants have incentives to influence market outcomes. However, as Kominers points out, markets tend to self-correct, as observed during attempts to manipulate political prediction markets in past elections. Beyond their traditional use in forecasting political outcomes, prediction markets are also being explored for applications such as scientific replication and corporate decision-making. For instance, companies like Hewlett-Packard…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/28

South Park Skewers Prediction Markets in Latest Episode

South Park Skewers Prediction Markets in Latest Episode

The post South Park Skewers Prediction Markets in Latest Episode appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The animated series South Park already kicked off its 27th season by ripping into cryptocurrencies and politics, and its most recent episode set its sights on prediction market apps.  In its episode titled Conflict of Interest, which aired on Wednesday, the characters in South Park’s elementary school engaged in a debate over the merits of prediction markets and the role US regulators had in overseeing them. Among the bets they made on a Kalshi- or Polymarket-type app included guessing school lunches, the outcome of conflicts between Israel and Palestine and whether a fictional baby was a boy or a girl. The show also poked fun at the individuals in charge of prediction markets and US regulators, including the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Federal Communications Commission (FCC), claiming they were “highly professional strategic advisers,” while portraying a character resembling Donald Trump Jr., who joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August and was named as a strategic adviser at Kalshi in January. Fictional Kalshi bet featured on the latest episode of South Park. Source: Comedy Central South Park has regularly incorporated cryptocurrency and blockchain themes into its satire. Past episodes have featured US President Donald Trump’s connections to crypto, labeled Bitcoin (BTC) a “fly-by-night Ponzi scheme,” and and made fun of people investing in non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Related: South Park destroys Matt Damon’s Crypto.com ad in season premiere The show’s 27th season launched after its owner, Paramount Global, reached a $16 million settlement with Trump over allegations of deceptive editing in an interview. The show consistently mocks the US president. Federal scrutiny of prediction markets seems to be waning in the US Kalshi had been engaged in a legal battle with the CFTC after the US regulator ordered the company to stop offering political event contracts in 2023. A lower…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/26

Recap: New ‘South Park’ Mocks Trump, FCC’s Carr And Prediction Market

Recap: New ‘South Park’ Mocks Trump, FCC’s Carr And Prediction Market

The post Recap: New ‘South Park’ Mocks Trump, FCC’s Carr And Prediction Market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scene from “South Park” Season 27, Episode 5. Comedy Central/Paramount+ South Park continued with its mockery of President Donald Trump in Episode 5 of Season 27 on Wednesday, titled Conflict of Interest. The episode premiered on Comedy Central on Wednesday night before it began streaming on Paramount+ Thursday morning. Conflict of Interest once again skewers Trump and Satan, but also takes on prediction market apps as South Park Elementary students, including Cartman, get involved in the craze. Note: The rest of this article includes major spoilers about “Conflict of Interest.” Forbes‘South Park’ Season 27 Updated Release Schedule: When Do New Episodes Come Out?By Tim Lammers As part of the prediction market apps storyline, South Park creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone wade into the debate over the Israel-Gaza War as students place bets on whether Kyle’s mother, who is Jewish, will launch a strike on Gaza. Angered over the antisemitic bet, Kyle tries reaching different government agencies to get it removed from the apps (and reaches special advisor Donald Trump Jr. each time). Eventually, Kyle gets Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr involved (more on that later). Even though Trump has been the prime target of Parker and Stone since the new season kicked off on July 23, it still came as somewhat of a surprise that the president was lampooned again on Wednesday. After all, the airing of the episode — which was supposed to be released last week — comes while political tensions remain high in the country following the Sept. 10 assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. Kirk was parodied in South Park’s second episode of the new season on Aug. 6, which the right-wing activist and podcaster took the ribbing in stride. Even so, Comedy Central removed the episode from its rerun line-up, though…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

‘South Park’ Takes On Prediction Markets—And Traders Are Already Betting On It

‘South Park’ Takes On Prediction Markets—And Traders Are Already Betting On It

The post ‘South Park’ Takes On Prediction Markets—And Traders Are Already Betting On It appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief South Park’s next episode, “Conflict of Interest,” will center on a prediction market app taking over the kids’ school. Real prediction markets like Myriad and Polymarket are letting users bet on which words or topics will appear in the episode, which is set to air tonight. The current season of South Park has stirred controversy over its depiction of figures like Charlie Kirk and President Donald Trump. In the midst of a headline-grabbing season that’s taken aim at all manner of timely and controversial subjects, South Park has found its latest target: prediction markets.  The latest episode of the hit animated series, due to air Wednesday night, will center on prediction markets and their incessant popularity among young people, Comedy Central announced earlier today.  The episode, titled “Conflict of Interest,” will specifically center on a rift that emerges between characters Cartman and Kyle when a popular prediction market app takes over their school.  Already, and perhaps proving the point of the show’s creators, crypto-backed prediction markets have jumped on the opportunity to financialize the finer points of tonight’s episode.  One Myriad market currently has odds at 31.7% that the episode will mention an existing prediction market—either Myriad itself, Polymarket, or Kalshi—by name. Roughly $11,400 has been wagered on the bet as of this writing. (Disclaimer: Myriad is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.) On Polymarket, users are wagering on the likelihood that other certain words are mentioned in the show tonight, including “predict” or “prediction” 10-plus times (71% odds), “Broncos” (49% odds), “Trump” three-plus times (45% odds) and “dildo” (55% odds). Despite the connectivity between prediction markets and cryptocurrency—which fuels the backend of platforms like Polymarket and Myriad)—odds of South Park mentioning “crypto” or “Bitcoin” tonight currently stand at only 31%. The market has so far…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

Melee Raises $3.5M to Launch ‘Viral Prediction Markets’ Without Gatekeepers

Melee Raises $3.5M to Launch ‘Viral Prediction Markets’ Without Gatekeepers

The post Melee Raises $3.5M to Launch ‘Viral Prediction Markets’ Without Gatekeepers appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Melee, a new prediction market startup that says speculation and betting should be as open as online discussion, has raised $3.5 million from Variant, DBA and a group of angel investors to roll out what it calls “Viral Markets.” Crypto native companies have witnessed the runaway success of Polymarket, the digital asset betting platform that grew to prominence during the U.S. election campaigns. Other novel projects to emerge include ‘Forecast Markets,’ a type of dated futures contracts launched on Clearmatics’ Autonity blockchain. Melee, which allows anyone to easily create a market on anything, sees prediction markets evolving alongside the internet like other types of social networks, following dimensions like media type, social graphs, interest graphs, and more, VC firm Variant said in an email. “We see prediction markets not as a winner-take-all market but as a burgeoning category, much like social networks, where there can be many winners. Social networks reshaped the way we create and consume information and media,” Variant said. “Unlike existing platforms that rely on centralized teams or professional market makers, Melee uses a pricing mechanism that rewards traders for being early and correct,” Variant added. The design also aims to attract creators. Influencers, podcasters or streamers can open markets tied to their audience’s interests and earn revenue from trading activity without taking on reputational risk. A fictional example might be a streamer launching a market on whether a blockbuster video game release will hit its target date, allowing fans to speculate directly alongside the conversation. For traders, the appeal lies in asymmetric upside. Entering a market early means lower costs of exposure, and payouts rise as more participants join and the outcome becomes clearer. The project’s team includes veterans of Solana, Avalanche, Monad, SIG, Microsoft and Amazon. The long-term vision, according to the announcement, is to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

South Park’s recent prediction markets feature causes speculation over Polymarket appearance

South Park’s recent prediction markets feature causes speculation over Polymarket appearance

The post South Park’s recent prediction markets feature causes speculation over Polymarket appearance appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. South Park’s Sept. 24 episode tackles prediction markets, and the crypto community is speculating if it will mention platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or Myriad Markets. The episode description said Kyle and Cartman will feud over a betting app that gains popularity among their classmates, sparking immediate reactions from major platforms in the space. John Wang, head of crypto at Kalshi, posted episode details on X. He expressed surprise: “tomorrow’s south park episode is about… prediction markets????” Polymarket posted the same details with a casual “oh, hi SouthPark,” acknowledging the show’s attention to their industry. Bettors start betting Polymarket users created betting pools centered on the episode’s content. A market asking “Who will trade on a prediction market in South Park?” generated $10,500 in volume across 17 options as of press time. Cartman led at 87% odds, followed by Butters at 74%, Kyle at 73%, and Stan at 70%. Other characters, including Randy, Kenny, and even Trump and Satan, received lower probabilities. A second Polymarket pool on episode dialogue moved $9,000, offering 13 betting options. “Predict / Prediction 10+ times” tops the market at 62% odds, while “Poly / Poly- 5+ times” sits at 35%. References to Trump appear at 40% probability, with various market terminology ranging from 13% to 68% odds. Users also opened a betting pool on Myriad Markets, asking whether the episode would explicitly mention Polymarket, Kalshi, or Myriad by name. The $13,200 pool heavily favored “no” at 70.4% odds versus 29.6% for “yes,” with strict resolution terms requiring exact name mentions rather than parodies or generic references. A Kalshi poll asking “What will the South Park characters say during the prediction market episode?” registered nearly $10,000 as of press time, with “Scam,” (61%) “Election,” (59%) and “MAGA” (42%) leading the odds. Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

Polymarket Lures Bettors With Highest 4% Yield Amid Kalshi’s Weekly Volume Surge

Polymarket Lures Bettors With Highest 4% Yield Amid Kalshi’s Weekly Volume Surge

Polymarket has introduced a new incentive for prediction market participants, offering a 4% annualized yield on certain long-term positions. The reward, which is paid out daily, is designed to keep long-term pricing accurate and is currently funded through the Polymarket Treasury. According to the exchange, the yield applies to positions in a set of political and geopolitical markets, including the 2028 U.S. presidential race, the balance of power in the 2026 midterms, and leadership outcomes in countries such as Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, and Ukraine. Positions are valued based on the number of “Yes” and “No” shares held and the most recent mid-price, with rewards distributed after an hourly random sampling of accounts. The 4% rate is variable and may be adjusted or capped at the company’s discretion. Prediction Market Rivalry Heats Up as Kalshi Tops Polymarket by Volumes While Polymarket’s new holding rewards seek to attract long-term bettors, competitor Kalshi has been dominating in terms of trading activity. For three consecutive weeks, Kalshi has posted higher volumes than Polymarket, recording $728 million in trades last week. That figure is nearly 60% higher than Polymarket’s volume and close to Kalshi’s record $749 million during the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.Source: Dune Analytics Data from Dune Analytics shows that between September 11 and 17, Kalshi captured 62% of total on-chain prediction market volume, with more than $500 million in trades and $189 million in open interest. Polymarket, by comparison, registered $430 million in trading volume and $164 million in open interest over the same period. Analysts note that Polymarket’s higher open interest relative to volume reflects longer-term positions, while Kalshi’s lower ratio points to faster turnover and more active trading. The competition between the two platforms shows diverging strategies. Kalshi, operating as a CFTC-authorized exchange, has capitalized on regulated event-based contract trading in the U.S. Polymarket, meanwhile, has historically catered to international users through blockchain-based markets but is expanding in the U.S. following its acquisition of the regulated exchange QCX. The company also recently launched earnings-based prediction markets in partnership with Stocktwits. Despite the differences in structure and oversight, both platforms continue to grow, with Kalshi solidifying its lead in weekly volume and Polymarket focusing on user retention through higher yields and long-term markets. CFTC Clears Polymarket for U.S. Return as Kalshi Faces State Lawsuit The prediction market space is entering a new phase as regulators in the U.S. take divergent approaches to two of its biggest players. On September 3, the CFTC cleared Polymarket to re-enter the U.S. through a no-action letter covering event contracts. The move marks Polymarket’s official return after a 2022 settlement forced it to block American users. CEO Shayne Coplan hailed the clearance as “a green light” for U.S. operations, noting that it gives the company space to scale legally. The breakthrough comes as Polymarket pursues a valuation of up to $10 billion, more than triple its last known $1 billion valuation in June. The firm rose to prominence after its markets accurately predicted Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, drawing major institutional backing and user growth. While Polymarket is regaining ground, rival Kalshi is facing legal hurdles. On September 13, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell filed a civil lawsuit accusing Kalshi of running unlicensed sports betting disguised as “event contracts.” The suit alleges that between January and June 2025, 70–75% of Kalshi’s $1 billion in wagers came from sports markets, rivaling licensed operators like DraftKings. Regulators say the platform allowed underage betting and lacked safeguards required by state law. As Polymarket moves forward with regulatory cover, Kalshi’s future could hinge on a growing clash between state gambling laws and federal commodities oversight

Author: CryptoNews

2025/09/25

Will stablecoins break the token flywheel?

Will stablecoins break the token flywheel?

The post Will stablecoins break the token flywheel? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. Crypto has grown into a Kafkaesque maze of meta-bets: Bitcoin is the reserve asset of the internet, and if it can do that, then Ethereum must be the World Computer.  But if Ethereum can’t scale to be the World Computer all by itself, then perhaps Solana, Avalanche or some other layer-1 will be the global settlement layer for computation instead. That settlement layer will need apps. Lots of them. Great for the fat app thesis — the investment logic that suggests “most of the value to be found in crypto today is to be found in apps.”  And if those fat apps have tokens, then hoo boy! — Imagine the value accrual. Especially for those apps that thrive in crypto’s hyperactive attention economy. What if the apps are so successful that they overload their settlement layers, thereby proving that those blockchains can’t scale, either? Or maybe their devs, validators or other ecosystem participants are not aligned with the apps themselves. What then? Fun with flywheels Odds are you’ll then love the appchain thesis. It has everything good about the fat app thesis, with the added benefit of a very special property: ongoing utility for network participants. Tokens can be dished out as rewards (read: payment) to the people and companies keeping the network online.  And those people need to stake their tokens (and not sell them) to receive more of those rewards — reducing downward pressure on the token’s price and maybe attracting new users (and holders) along the way. The token is an integral part of that flywheel. Something that Empire host Santiago Roel Santos said on today’s podcast got me thinking about all of this. The topic of Polymarket’s trajectory had come up, and Santi…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/23

Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

The post Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory. From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million. Prediction market volumes (Dune) Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.” Polymarket’s longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially. This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi’s users are trading more often, while Polymarket’s positions tend to sit. Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again. It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time. Read more: Polymarket Weighs $9B Valuation Amid User Surge and CFTC Approval: The Information Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/20/kalshi-outpaces-polymarket-in-prediction-market-volume-amid-surge-in-u-s-trading

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/21

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