Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

899 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction markets surge to new highs as Neutrl unlocks hidden yield

Prediction markets surge to new highs as Neutrl unlocks hidden yield

The post Prediction markets surge to new highs as Neutrl unlocks hidden yield appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Prediction markets are exploding with record volumes, billion dollar raises and new players shaking up the landscape. At the same time, Neutrl is opening up one of the strongest and least talked about yield opportunities in crypto, and early numbers are already turning heads. Plenty to be thankful for in the middle of this market chop. Market Update Since my last update on prediction markets, the space has only gotten more competitive. New entrants want a slice of the rapidly growing pie, and the race for dominance now feels like a full-blown fundraising arms race. Kalshi’s valuation jumped to $11 billion after announcing a $1 billion round, following the NYSE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. Polymarket is already in early conversations to raise at a $12 billion to $15 billion valuation, suggesting that the market is heating up faster than expected. On the activity side, weekly volumes have broken past previous all-time highs, hitting $3.68 billion two weeks ago, which is 2.4x above last year’s election peak. A major reason for this surge is a new entrant called Opinion Labs. Backed by investors like YZi Labs, the platform is already doing close to one third of total volumes across prediction markets. However, most of this growth appears to be farming-driven. Opinion Labs is running a points program, and the data quickly shows it. One market alone, titled Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025, has done $1.28 billion in volume, which accounts for 32% of its total notional volume. It is not the type of market one would expect to generate that level of activity organically. Despite the volume surge, Opinion Labs only represents 14% of total open interest,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Own Prediction Market Stack

Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Own Prediction Market Stack

The post Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Own Prediction Market Stack appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Deal: Robinhood and Susquehanna are buying 90% of MIAXdx (formerly LedgerX) to control their derivatives infrastructure. The Asset: The acquisition provides a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, allowing Robinhood to list its own contracts. The Growth: Robinhood users have traded 9 billion prediction contracts, driving the move toward vertical integration. Robinhood Markets is moving to own the infrastructure behind its fastest-growing product line. The brokerage has agreed to acquire a majority stake in the MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx), the CFTC-regulated platform formerly known as LedgerX, in a strategic joint venture with market maker Susquehanna International Group (SIG). The deal, expected to close in Q1 2026, is a play for vertical integration. By purchasing MIAXdx from Miami International Holdings (MIAX), Robinhood gains immediate access to a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO. Related: Robinhood Faces EU Regulatory Scrutiny Over New OpenAI and SpaceX Stock Tokens This dual-license structure allows Robinhood to list, execute, and clear its own event contracts and crypto derivatives, removing reliance on third-party venues. Currently, Robinhood offers prediction markets through partners; owning the stack allows for faster product listing and better economics. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products,” said JB Mackenzie, VP of Futures at Robinhood. The “LedgerX” Legacy MIAXdx is the rebranded entity of LedgerX, the derivatives platform previously owned by FTX US before being sold to MIAX during the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings in 2023. Robinhood’s acquisition effectively brings this battle-tested regulatory asset under its umbrella. Under the terms of the deal, MIAX will retain a 10% minority stake, ensuring continuity as the platform pivots toward retail-focused event contracts. Susquehanna’s Role: The Liquidity Engine  The partnership with Susquehanna is designed to solve the “cold start” problem inherent in new exchanges. As a…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Crypto.com Executive Confident Courts Will Uphold CFTC Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets

Crypto.com Executive Confident Courts Will Uphold CFTC Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets

The post Crypto.com Executive Confident Courts Will Uphold CFTC Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto.com’s Global Head of Predictions, Travis McGhee, argues that prediction markets outperform traditional polling, citing the 2024 U.S. presidential election as proof. While they face ongoing legal battles, McGhee remains confident that courts will ultimately favor the industry. Why Prediction Markets Have the Edge According to Travis McGhee, Global Head of Predictions at Crypto.com, prediction […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-com-executive-confident-courts-will-uphold-cftc-jurisdiction-over-prediction-markets/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Eyes Prediction Markets with FTX-Linked Acquisition

Robinhood Eyes Prediction Markets with FTX-Linked Acquisition

The post Robinhood Eyes Prediction Markets with FTX-Linked Acquisition appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A company with ties to the defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX is being acquired by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group as part of a push into the prediction market sector. According to a Reuters report on Tuesday, Robinhood and Susquehanna will acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, one of the few solvent companies tied to FTX following its bankruptcy filing in 2022. The move came just hours after Robinhood announced the launch of a futures and derivatives platform with options for prediction markets.  Robinhood initially reported the acquisition of a majority stake in MIAXdx, an exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. MIAXdx, previously known as LedgerX, was acquired by Miami International Holdings (MIAX) for $50 million in 2023 amid FTX’s bankruptcy. MIAX will retain a 10% stake in the firm, according to Reuters. “Through our retained equity stake, the transaction announced today will provide MIAX with access to the growing prediction markets on an expedited basis,” said MIAX CEO and chair Thomas Gallagher. Related: UFC taps Polymarket to add betting signals for live fight coverage The acquisition could put Robinhood in a position to challenge large prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Prediction markets surged significantly in 2024, driven partially by interest in bets on US elections. Not the only game in town Since a federal court cleared the way for Kalshi to offer event contracts tied to US elections in October 2024, the market has seen significant investments from companies in and out of the crypto industry. Kalshi reportedly increased its valuation to $11 billion last week after a funding round led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG. Polymarket also scored a regulatory win on Tuesday, with the CFTC approving the company to operate a US-intermediated trading platform. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is also reportedly…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Joins the Race Against Kalshi and Polymarket After New Acquisition

Robinhood Joins the Race Against Kalshi and Polymarket After New Acquisition

The post Robinhood Joins the Race Against Kalshi and Polymarket After New Acquisition appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Fintech Robinhood is making one of its most aggressive moves yet into derivatives and prediction markets, and its latest acquisition signals that the retail trading giant wants a seat at the very top of the sector. Key Takeaways Robinhood and Susquehanna are taking majority control of LedgerX, giving Robinhood a regulated gateway into prediction markets. The deal places Robinhood in direct competition with Kalshi, Polymarket and Coinbase as event-based trading rapidly expands. Markets reacted positively, sending Robinhood shares sharply higher after the acquisition was reported. Rather than building the infrastructure from scratch, the company — alongside Susquehanna International Group — has secured controlling ownership of LedgerX, a derivatives clearinghouse that once sat inside the FTX corporate structure but remained solvent after the exchange’s collapse. A Strategic Shortcut Into Regulated Derivatives The acquisition gives Robinhood a rare asset: a federally licensed venue approved to handle futures and event-based contracts. For a company expanding beyond stock trading and crypto, that instantly removes years of regulatory hurdles. The timing of the deal is no coincidence. Earlier the same day, Robinhood introduced a new futures and derivatives division centered on prediction markets — the increasingly popular financial segment where users trade on the outcome of real-world events. LedgerX, currently operating under the MIAXdx name following a 2023 sale to Miami International Holdings, now shifts control to Robinhood and Susquehanna. MIAX will stay on board with a minority 10% stake. A Crowded Battlefield Is Taking Shape The prediction-market space has undergone a dramatic transformation this year, fueled by regulatory breakthroughs and soaring demand for event-based trading — especially around election markets. Kalshi, after winning a legal fight to list U.S. election contracts, has ballooned to an $11 billion valuation. Polymarket just earned approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate an intermediated U.S. platform.…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Can Robinhood Stock Hit $150 Amid Ark Invest’s Bet & This Major Update?

Can Robinhood Stock Hit $150 Amid Ark Invest’s Bet & This Major Update?

The post Can Robinhood Stock Hit $150 Amid Ark Invest’s Bet & This Major Update? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Insights: Robinhood stock jumped more than 5% today, sparking market optimism. The surge comes as Ark Invest has made a significant HOOD stock acquisition. Analyst reveals a target of $150 for Robinhood stock. Robinhood stock has recorded a surge of over 5% in the pre-market trading session today, soaring past the $120 mark. Notably, the surge in HOOD stock price came despite a muted sentiment recorded in the broader crypto market, and BTC price traded below $87,000. A flurry of market experts has attributed the recent gains in the crypto stock to the latest expansion plans of it into the prediction markets. For context, a recent acquisition of the firm appears to have fueled the market interest. On the other hand, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has made robust bets in the crypto stocks arena. For context, Ark Invest has recently bagged shares of Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood, among others, indicating its confidence in the assets. Amid this, a top expert has hinted at a potential surge of the HOOD stock price to $150. So, here we explore the potential reasons behind the surge in Robinhood stock and see what experts are anticipating for the potential future trajectory of the asset. Robinhood Stock Soars Amid Ark Invest’s Bet The Robinhood (HOOD) stock price has added nearly 5.2% in the pre-market trading session today and traded at $121.59. Notably, this comes after the crypto stock closed at $115.57, up 0.5% in the prior session on Tuesday, November 25. Robinhood Stock Price | Source: Yahoo Finance The latest surge has helped in a 1% gain in HOOD stock on its weekly chart, but the monthly return was down at 17%. The price dip over the past few weeks could be attributed to the broader crypto market selloff, which has spooked traders and…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood’s FTX-Linked MIAXdx Stake Could Boost Competition in Prediction Markets

Robinhood’s FTX-Linked MIAXdx Stake Could Boost Competition in Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood’s FTX-Linked MIAXdx Stake Could Boost Competition in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group are acquiring a 90% stake in MIAXdx, an FTX-linked exchange formerly known as LedgerX, to expand into prediction markets. This strategic move positions them against competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket amid surging interest in event-based trading platforms. Acquisition Details: Robinhood and Susquehanna secure majority control of MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed clearinghouse with roots in the FTX ecosystem. The deal follows Robinhood’s recent launch of a futures and derivatives platform, enhancing access to prediction markets for retail investors. Prediction markets grew significantly in 2024, with platforms like Kalshi reaching a $11 billion valuation and Polymarket gaining CFTC approval for U.S. operations. Discover how Robinhood’s acquisition of an FTX-linked exchange boosts its prediction markets entry. Explore competition with Kalshi, Polymarket, and market growth trends in 2024. Stay informed on crypto trading innovations today. What is Robinhood’s Acquisition of the FTX-Linked MIAXdx Exchange? Robinhood’s acquisition of a stake in MIAXdx, formerly LedgerX, marks a pivotal expansion into prediction markets for the trading platform. In a deal announced recently, Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group are purchasing a 90% stake in the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. This acquisition, valued in the context of Miami International Holdings’ prior $50 million purchase in 2023, allows Robinhood to integrate advanced derivatives and event contract offerings shortly after launching its own futures platform. How Does This Position Robinhood Against Competitors in Prediction Markets? The acquisition directly challenges established players like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have dominated the prediction markets space. Kalshi, for instance, saw its valuation soar to $11 billion following a funding round led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, reflecting investor confidence in event-based trading tied to real-world outcomes such as U.S. elections. Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform, received CFTC approval to operate a U.S.-intermediated trading venue, enabling broader…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push

Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push

The post Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Trading app Robinhood has acquired a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group. Research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition is a move by Robinhood to launch its own prediction market platform, alongside the Kalshi-powered “events contracts” it already offers. As a result, shares of HOOD have risen 8% on Wednesday as the firm inches closer to its September all-time high. Robinhood may be making a push towards launching its own dedicated prediction market platform, acquiring a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, which was previously owned by the now-defunct FTX. In response, the shares of HOOD have climbed more than 8% to $125 since Wednesday’s market open, according to Yahoo Finance. “Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, in a statement. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.” The popular trading app partnered with prediction market Kalshi in the summer to start offering what it brands as “event contracts,” which its CEO Vlad Tenev said were “really on fire” in a recent earnings call.  However, research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition of LedgerX, which does business under the name MIAX, is a move by Robinhood to launch its own event contracts alongside the Kalshi-powered offerings. “With HOOD already accounting for more than 50% of Kalshi market volumes, we believe, HOOD wants to leverage its distribution edge to claim a higher share of the market revenue pool,” Bernstein analysts said in a note shared with Decrypt. “By adding its own prediction markets liquidity, HOOD can innovate further on product mix leading to more revenue upside from both growing…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood, Susquehanna Take Over LedgerX to Expand Prediction Markets

Robinhood, Susquehanna Take Over LedgerX to Expand Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood, Susquehanna Take Over LedgerX to Expand Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Notes The partnership acquires MIAXdx, formerly LedgerX, providing CFTC-regulated derivatives trading infrastructure. Prediction markets drove 9 billion contracts across 1 million users, becoming Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line. HOOD shares surged 12% on the news, contributing to a 243% year-to-date rally and bullish analyst price targets. Robinhood Markets, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOOD) has announced a major expansion into prediction markets through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. The new partnership will take control of LedgerX, a regulated crypto derivatives exchange previously owned by Miami International Holdings. The acquisition positions Robinhood to launch a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, deepening its presence in the trendy prediction market industry, Reuters reported. A Joint Venture Structure to Offer Prediction Markets The independent exchange will be managed by the joint venture, with Robinhood serving as the controlling partner. Susquehanna International Group, a company famous for being one of the most prominent investors in Bitcoin ETFs, will act as the day-one liquidity provider, while other market makers are expected to join to enhance execution quality. The venture will acquire MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM), Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), and Swap Execution Facility (SEF). This company, formerly LedgerX, was one of the first to offer regulated Bitcoin options in the US under CFTC regulation and was part of the FTX empire before its collapse. Miami International Holdings will retain a 10% equity stake in the new exchange. Robinhood is introducing a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, deepening our investment in Prediction Markets and better positioning us to deliver innovative products to our customers. More in our newsroom: https://t.co/Hqv6EMXZiD pic.twitter.com/JXDkp3c2Tr — Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) November 25, 2025 Prediction Markets Momentum Prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue, with more than 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in just…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
US midday market brief: Dow rallies over 400 points as Oracle’s AI boost propels S&P 500, Nasdaq higher

US midday market brief: Dow rallies over 400 points as Oracle’s AI boost propels S&P 500, Nasdaq higher

Wall Street extended its winning streak to four consecutive sessions on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing over 400 points by midday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both gaining ground.The rally, driven by optimism over a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December and renewed appetite for artificial intelligence stocks, found fresh fuel in strong earnings from Oracle and Dell Technologies.Traders are pricing in an 83% probability of a December rate cut, underpinning risk sentiment as markets head into the holiday-shortened trading week.​The broad-based momentum reflects investor confidence that the AI narrative remains intact despite earlier concerns about slowing growth and competitive pressures.Earnings beats from major technology firms continue to shift sentiment away from recession fears, with Dell’s record AI server demand providing particular encouragement for the infrastructure buildout that’s underpinning the sector’s comeback.​Oracle sparks tech gains, jobless data adds supportOracle shares climbed 4-5% on Wednesday after strategically positioning itself at the forefront of the AI infrastructure race.The software giant announced major partnerships with Nvidia and AMD to develop AI supercomputers for national labs, underscoring its role as a critical enabler in the AI economy.This move amplified broader tech enthusiasm, with Dell Technologies surging 6.7% after reporting record demand for AI servers and raising full-year guidance, a clear signal that corporate spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure remains robust.​Sentiment received an additional boost from fresher labor-market data. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000 from 222,000, beating economist expectations of 225,000 and signaling that layoffs are easing.The softer labor reading, combined with earlier retail-sales misses and producer-price data that remained within expectations, has reinforced the case for a December Fed rate cut.The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.03%, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.49%, as market participants repositioned ahead of the central bank’s December meeting.​Nvidia also added 2.5%, recovering from earlier losses related to competition from Alphabet ‘s AI chips.By midday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 had posted a 1.1% gain, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors trading in positive territory, led by technology, materials, and consumer staples.​Retail trades strong, volatility fadesConsumer discretionary stocks also participated in the rally.Urban Outfitters surged 11.7% after earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, while Robinhood jumped nearly 8% following its announcement of a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group to acquire LedgerX for prediction-markets trading.Deere & Company, however, dropped nearly 4% after issuing a downbeat outlook, citing tariff pressures, a reminder that trade policy remains a headwind for some industrial sectors.​The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” extended its decline for a fourth straight session, falling more than 5% as risk-off sentiment faded.This suggests institutional investors are increasingly comfortable rotating into equities and away from defensive positions.The Nasdaq has gained more than 4% so far this holiday-shortened week, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively.​International markets tracked the rally, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumping 1.9%, Germany’s DAX gaining 0.7%, and France’s CAC 40 rising 0.6%, as major exporters and technology counters benefited from the synchronized optimism.​What to watch next: The US equity market will be closedon  Thursday for Thanksgiving and operate on shortened hourson  Friday, ending at 1 PM E.T.Focus will shift to December Fed rate-cut odds as additional economic data arrives and corporate guidance updates shape expectations heading into 2026.​The post US midday market brief: Dow rallies over 400 points as Oracle's AI boost propels S&P 500, Nasdaq higher appeared first on Invezz

Author: Coinstats