TON Price Prediction: Targets $2.00-$2.40 Recovery by February After Technical Oversold Conditions

Caroline Bishop
Jan 21, 2026 18:05

Toncoin trades at $1.54 with RSI at 37.77 showing oversold conditions. Technical analysis suggests recovery toward $2.00-$2.40 range as recent predictions indicate potential bounce from current sup…

TON Price Prediction Summary

• Short-term target (1 week): $1.63-$1.75
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $2.00-$2.40 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.97
• Critical support: $1.46

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin

While specific analyst predictions from major KOLs are limited in recent hours, recent analysis from blockchain research platforms provides insights into TON’s trajectory. According to CoinCodex analysis from January 19, 2026, “Toncoin is expected to reach a price of $2.05 by Jan 24, 2026,” representing a 33% upside from current levels.

Blockchain.News technical analysis from the same date indicates that “Toncoin shows oversold conditions at $1.61 with technical indicators suggesting potential recovery toward $2.00-$2.40 range as RSI remains neutral and MACD shows bullish momentum.” This Toncoin forecast aligns with the current technical picture showing oversold RSI conditions at 37.77.

Earlier predictions from January 15 were even more optimistic, with CoinCodex targeting “$2.20 by Jan 20, 2026,” though this target was not reached as TON continued consolidating in the $1.50-$1.60 range.

TON Technical Analysis Breakdown

The current technical setup for Toncoin presents a mixed but increasingly constructive picture. At $1.54, TON is trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.53, with the Bollinger Band position indicator showing 0.0193, confirming the cryptocurrency is testing significant support levels.

The RSI reading of 37.77 indicates neutral conditions with a slight oversold bias, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting. This TON price prediction factor is crucial as RSI levels below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions that often precede rebounds.

MACD indicators show bearish momentum with the histogram at 0.0000, indicating the bearish trend may be losing strength. The MACD line at -0.0220 matches the signal line, suggesting potential momentum shift ahead.

Moving averages present a challenging landscape with TON trading below all major timeframes. The 7-day SMA at $1.64 represents immediate resistance, while the 20-day SMA at $1.75 and 50-day SMA at $1.64 create the next resistance cluster. The 200-day SMA at $2.45 remains significantly above current prices, indicating the longer-term trend recovery target.

Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case

Bullish Scenario

The bullish case for this TON price prediction centers on the oversold technical conditions and proximity to the lower Bollinger Band support. If TON can break above the immediate resistance at $1.58, the next target becomes the strong resistance at $1.63, representing a 6% move.

A sustained break above $1.63 would likely trigger momentum toward the 7-day SMA at $1.64 and potentially the 20-day SMA at $1.75. The ultimate bullish target aligns with recent analyst forecasts in the $2.00-$2.40 range, requiring a break above the upper Bollinger Band at $1.97.

Technical confirmation for the bullish scenario would require RSI breaking above 40 and MACD histogram turning positive, indicating renewed buying momentum.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish case acknowledges that TON remains below all major moving averages and has failed to hold previous support levels. If the current support at $1.50 fails, the next major support lies at $1.46, representing a 5% decline.

A break below $1.46 could trigger further selling toward psychological support at $1.40 or lower. The bearish scenario would be confirmed if RSI drops below 30 into deeply oversold territory and MACD histogram becomes increasingly negative.

Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy

Based on current technical levels, conservative entry points for this Toncoin forecast would be on any dip toward the strong support at $1.46, representing favorable risk-reward positioning. More aggressive traders might consider entries on breaks above $1.58 with confirmation from increased volume.

Stop-loss levels should be placed below $1.46 to limit downside risk, while take-profit targets can be set at $1.75 for the first target and $2.00 for extended moves. The daily ATR of $0.09 suggests position sizing should account for normal volatility of approximately 6% daily moves.

Risk management remains crucial given TON’s position below major moving averages and the broader cryptocurrency market’s volatility patterns.

Conclusion

This TON price prediction suggests a moderate recovery potential over the coming weeks, with technical indicators showing oversold conditions that historically precede rebounds. The convergence of analyst targets in the $2.00-$2.40 range provides a reasonable medium-term forecast, representing 30-55% upside potential from current levels.

However, investors should note that cryptocurrency price predictions carry inherent risks, and market conditions can change rapidly. The technical setup suggests potential for recovery, but confirmation through price action above key resistance levels remains essential for validating the bullish thesis.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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