Bitcoin Surges Past $73,000 as Hot CPI Meets Fragile Ceasefire

Bitcoin surged past $73,000 on Friday, up 1.8% over the past 24 hours and 9.4% on the week, as traders weighed a hotter-than-expected March CPI report against a still-fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Ethereum followed, climbing to $2,250, up 2.0% on the day and nearly 10% over the past seven days, per CoinGecko. Solana gained 2% to $85, XRP rose 0.6% to $1.36, and BNB ticked up 0.3% to $609.

Bittensor (TAO) was the day’s biggest loser among top tokens, dropping 21% to $265 after a prominent subnet developer denounced the ecosystem.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to approximately $2.55 trillion, up 1% over the past 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 16, still deep in “Extreme Fear,” a zone the market has now occupied for nearly two months.

Energy-Driven Inflation Spike

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year in March, the highest annual increase since May 2024. The spike was almost entirely energy-driven, as gasoline prices surged a record 21.2% during the month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall monthly increase.

The silver lining for risk assets was the core print. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose just 0.2% month-over-month, matching the prior month’s pace, while the annual core rate ticked up to 2.6% from 2.5%. That distinction matters because the headline number reflects the oil shock from the Iran war, but the Fed watches core inflation more closely. CME data shows that the market is pricing in a 98% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at its April 29 meeting.

The ceasefire announced earlier this week initially sparked a sharp rally, with Bitcoin jumping over 4% on Wednesday after Trump announced a two-week deal with Iran. But reports of continued fighting and disagreement over Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz quickly derailed that bounce. Friday’s move above $73,000 marks BTC’s highest level since mid-March.

Perpetual futures funding rates are trending toward negative territory again despite short liquidations earlier this week, according to CoinGlass, signaling that the derivatives market remains cautiously positioned even as spot prices rise.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $343 million in net inflows on April 9, per SoSoValue data. Total BTC ETF net assets sit at roughly $93.2 billion.

Looking Ahead

Friday’s push above $73,000 brings Bitcoin to the upper end of the $62,000–$75,000 range it has traded within since early February.

The core CPI print gives the Fed cover to hold, but the headline number keeps rate cuts off the table for now. If the ceasefire holds and oil prices continue to ease, the energy-driven inflation spike should fade in the coming months. A sustained break above $75,000 would be the first technical signal that the post-crash range is resolving to the upside.