Institutions’ bitcoin positioning lacks conviction; CPI, Iran talks might help

Bitcoin’s BTC$71,506.32 price may have rallied almost 7% since Sunday, but conviction remains weak, with the recovery stalling near $72,000 ahead of key binary risks, including Friday’s U.S. inflation report and U.S.-Iran truce talks this weekend.

The cautious approach is evident in the options market, where institutions continue to chase upside via calls, the derivative contracts that allow traders to bet on gains of the underlying asset.

According to QCP Capital, options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) show demand for the $45 call expiring in May. That means traders expect IBIT’s price to rise above that level from the present $40. Bitcoin options on Deribit have seen similar flows, with the $80,000 call emerging as the most popular bet. Still, demand for puts, which offer downside protection, persists.

The sticky demand for protection against declines is also revealed in options skew, which measures the price differential between calls and puts, and remains negative across all time frames. That indicates a lingering bias for put options.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for March is expected to show a marked increase in annualized inflation to well over 3%, led primarily by rising energy prices.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise, given that the Iran war led to a sharp surge in oil and gasoline prices worldwide. Still, markets may see volatility if the core figure, which excludes food and energy, blows past the annualized 2.7% estimate. That would further cement the case for Fed rate increases, potentially weighing on risk assets such as BTC.

Beyond CPI, the weekend meeting between Iranian and U.S. delegates in Pakistan holds the key to financial market stability. BTC’s rally will likely accelerate if they find a way to end the war and normalize oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The first cues could come through Hyperliquid-listed oil perpetual futures. Stay alert!

What’s trending

Today’s signal

The chart shows swings in the ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE), which reflects volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.

Sharp spikes in the index indicate rising uncertainty around inflation, interest rates or macro shocks. Treasury notes anchor the global finance and collateral and credit creation. Hence, increased turbulence in U.S. bonds often coincides with tighter financial conditions and broader risk-off sentiment spilling into equities, credit, and crypto markets.

The index popped in March, rising to 115% from 73% only to drop back to 74% this month. It showed that the world’s most important bond market is calm again, a green signal for crypto bulls.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today .

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.