SEI “Never Coming Back” to $1, Here’s Why Things Could Get Worse After a 95% Dip

SEI price has dropped nearly 95% from its peak, and the numbers behind that decline tell a deeper story than price action alone. The situation around Sei Network shows how supply growth, weak capital retention, and persistent technical pressure can combine into a long-term struggle.

That drop from $1.14 to around $0.053 did not happen in isolation. Data shared by Our Crypto Talk reveals a key detail that changes the entire outlook for SEI.

SEI reached its all-time high in March 2024 when the circulating supply sat close to 3 billion tokens. That placed the market cap between $2.2 billion and $2.5 billion at the peak.

A year later, the market cap pushed above $2.5 billion during a broader altcoin rally. That development should have supported a higher SEI price. The opposite happened instead, as the token traded near $0.63 during that period.

Our Crypto Talk points to one clear reason for this disconnect. Circulating supply expanded rapidly from about 3 billion to nearly 5 billion tokens. New capital entered the ecosystem, but token inflation diluted that demand.

That imbalance explains why SEI price failed to recover even when capital levels looked strong on paper.

SEI Supply Expansion Continues To Pressure Price Outlook

Token supply remains the core issue shaping SEI price expectations. Current circulating supply stands around 6.73 billion tokens, which represents about 67% of the total 10 billion supply.

That figure may appear manageable at first glance. The allocation structure shows why pressure remains.

Ecosystem reserves control 48% of supply. Team and private investors each hold 20%. Foundation allocation stands at 9%, and Binance Launchpool accounts for 3%.

Our Crypto Talk explains that monthly unlocks reached 100 million to 150 million tokens during peak periods in 2025. That equates to about 1.5% to 2% of supply entering the market every month.

The April 15, 2026 unlock alone adds another 55.56 million SEI tokens. Vesting schedules extend into 2032 and beyond, which means this supply pressure will not disappear anytime soon.

A move to $1 would require a market cap of at least $6.73 billion at current supply levels. Supply growth could push that requirement closer to $8 billion over time.

Sei Network Capital Outflows Show Weak Ecosystem Demand

Network data adds another layer to the concern around Sei Network. Total value locked climbed to between $600 million and $680 million during 2025.

Recent figures show a steep decline to between $39 million and $60 million. That represents a drop of more than 90%.

Daily network fees remain extremely low at around $368. That number highlights limited activity across the chain. DEX volume stays near $9 million to $10 million, which points to modest trading demand.

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Stablecoin market cap sits near $181 million, although only about $118 million represents native liquidity. A large portion consists of bridged assets that may leave quickly if conditions worsen.

Our Crypto Talk uses this data to argue that capital does not stay within the ecosystem. That pattern weakens long-term confidence in SEI price recovery.

SEI Technical Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Since ATH

Price structure reinforces the fundamental concerns. A look at the SEI chart shows a clear pattern of lower highs since March 2024.

Every recovery attempt has faced rejection along a descending trendline. That pattern has remained intact for more than two years.

The first key level sits around $0.25. Previous support in that zone has turned into resistance. A move from $0.053 to $0.25 would require a gain of about 370%.

The next barrier appears between $0.60 and $0.70, which capped multiple rallies during late 2024 and early 2025.

Our Crypto Talk explains that both levels must turn into support before any serious move toward $1 becomes realistic. Current structure shows no clear sign of that transition yet.

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SEI price now sits in a position where both fundamentals and technicals point in the same direction. Supply continues to expand, capital has left the ecosystem, and resistance levels remain firmly overhead.

That combination creates a difficult path toward $1, especially as circulating supply keeps rising over time.

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The post SEI “Never Coming Back” to $1, Here’s Why Things Could Get Worse After a 95% Dip appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.