Bitcoin Price Struggles as it Retests 200-Week EMA After Breakout

• Bitcoin price trades near historic bottom zones with only 15% lower readings in past cycles.
• BTC is retesting the 200-week EMA after breaking above it last week.
• BTC price faces downside risk as traders expect a drop below $55K.

Bitcoin is under pressure again as it struggles to hold a key support level after its recent breakout. The price has dropped from a monthly high of $76K to below $71K, bringing it back to the important 200-week EMA that traders closely watch.

This level has often marked major bottoms in the past, making the current move more important. Data shows Bitcoin is now in a rare zone where prices have stayed lower only a few times before. At the same time, Polymarket prediction market data points to rising caution, with many traders expecting further downside as momentum weakens.

Bitcoin Tests Historic Bottom Zone

Recent charts show Bitcoin trading in a zone where previous cycle lows formed. Analyst Julius noted the asset has entered a region where most long-term bottoms appeared in earlier cycles. Historical models indicate only 15% of past market readings dropped below current levels.

This statistical positioning places the market close to an area that previously triggered recovery phases.

Price movement in this band is fluctuating. Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can maintain stability in the range while buyers attempt to defend support levels.

Derivatives desks, spot exchanges, institutional trading platforms, and market players still monitor this region. Their reaction can make or break Bitcoin, as it will stabilize or resume lower support areas.

200-Week EMA Retest Shapes BTC Direction

Bitcoin is currently pulling back toward the 200-week EMA, a widely followed long-term technical indicator. The level previously acted as resistance before the recent breakout.

Market analyst Rekt Capital attributed this to the fact that the asset is going back to the level to determine whether it can turn the EMA into support. A retest should prove the breakout experienced last week.

Bitcoin Pullback Toward the 200-Week EMA Retest Level Source: X 

Charts shared on X show Bitcoin hovering close to the indicator as traders monitor weekly candle closes. This level can be a major factor that determines whether there is a shift in momentum towards bullish continuation or downward re-emergence.

A failure to break above the EMA would alter the market predictions. The weekly close that is lower than the line might be an indication that the breakout was not very strong, and chances are that a new correctional period might be seen.

Prediction Markets Expect Bitcoin Downtrend to Continue

Meanwhile, recent data indicate a 69% chance of BTC price dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, a 13% increase from the previous day. Traders also set 59% odds of BTC crossing below the $50,000 psychological level and a 46% chance that it could fall as low as $45,000 before the end of the year.

Bitcoin’s recent decline to $69,000 pushed it below Strategy’s average BTC purchase price of $75,696 at the time of writing. Despite this expected drawdown, Polymarket odds show less than a 15% chance of Strategy selling Bitcoin in 2026, while expectations for routine purchases remain elevated.