When will Bitcoin’s price rally? It’s complicated

Hi! Eric here.

Bitcoin showed signs of life this week.

The top cryptocurrency, which has trembled between $60,000 and $70,000 for most of February, finally broke out of the range after the US and Israel attacked Iran.

It’s currently trading just under $70,000.

Now what?

Will the Middle Eastern conflict shake Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market out of their funk and catapult them back to prices seen in October — or even above those levels?

The answer depends on who you’re asking.

Bull case

Perennial pumpers like Maelstrom’s Arthur Hayes already sermonise a return to the land of milk and honey, where Bitcoin reaches record prices.

Their argument usually follows the same format.

Any escalation of the conflict will force the US government to step in to fund the war effort.

When that happens, the Federal Reserve will pump more liquidity into the economy, which will trigger new crypto all-time highs faster than you can say “Satoshi Nakamoto.”

Others are not as bullish.

Bear case

CoinShares’ James Butterfill and Wintermute’s Jake Ostroviskis warn that Iran’s response to the attacks — especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the passage of about a fifth of the world’s oil — will raise fuel prices.

Surging energy prices translate to higher inflation, and higher inflation means that the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates.

Lower interest rates usually incentivise investors to bet on riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Then there are those who say that Bitcoin’s price jumping above $70,000 is just a preamble to more violent drops, as the rise will invite traders to take profit.

Even before US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed off on the airstrikes that took out Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Bloomberg analysts warned that Bitcoin’s price would likely fall to $10,000 in the coming months.

So, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what happens next.

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Post of the Week

The Federal Bureau of Investigation director, Kash Patel, took to social media on Thursday to announce the arrest of a young man alleged of stealing $46 million in crypto from the US Marshals Service.

The USMS are responsible for holding cryptocurrencies seized during legal operations by the US government as part of the administration’s US Bitcoin Reserve.

Patel congratulated French authorities for apprehending John Daghita on the island of Saint Martin in the Caribbean.