Bitcoin is Set for Momentum Reversal Despite Ongoing War in Iran—Analyst

• Bitcoin surged approximately 10% in the past 24 hours.
• Crypto analysts spotted a sudden surge in perpetual traders’ activity.
• BTC is well-positioned for a momentum reversal, despite the war in Iran.

Bitcoin’s behavior over the past 24 hours has caught the attention of crypto analysts, triggering discussions about a potential trend reversal amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Perpetual Traders Trigger Potential BTC Reversal

The cryptocurrency surged approximately 10% on Wednesday, smashing through multiple resistances to climb above the $74,000 threshold for the first time since the first week of February. K33Research’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, identified a sudden surge in perpetual traders’ activity, linking it to the latest Bitcoin rally.

In his latest post on X, Lunde noted that the national Open Interest on Binance’s BTCUSDT perp surged 7,547 BTC within four hours. According to Lunde, the last time the market experienced such a rally was in 2023, when Bitcoin embarked on a year-long rally that led to surpassing the $70,000 landmark for the first time.

Bitcoin’s Latest Surge Was Unexpected

In the meantime, Lunde acknowledged the sudden nature of Bitcoin’s latest rally, noting that the cryptocurrency surged unexpectedly. According to the analyst, Bitcoin entered last weekend heavily oversold, heavily shorted, and significantly underowned. He also cited the war in Iran as a factor that further complicates Bitcoin’s situation, following five months of continuous decline that saw the cryptocurrency lose 50% of its value.

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However, certain extreme conditions set the tone for a potential Bitcoin reversal, with the weekly RSI indicator falling to its third-lowest-ever reading, suggesting BTC entered the week uniquely oversold. Lunde further noted that institutional investors reduced their exposure to Bitcoin in the past months, with ETFs enduring outflows of nearly 100,000 BTC and national CME open interest falling 30% from its October 2025 levels.

Has Bitcoin Found a Bottom?

According to Lunde, these factors, among several others, aligned with recent Bitcoin strength, highlighting a typical market behavior for BTC. Citing historical behavior, the analyst suggested that BTC has entered a bottoming phase characterized by imbalances, overcrowding, and sell-side exhaustion. According to him, Bitcoin is well-positioned for a momentum reversal, despite the broad uncertainty stemming from the dramatic escalation in the Middle East.

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