New MLS Apple TV Data Is Promising, But Don’t Jump To Conclusions

On Thursday, Major League Soccer announced that 9.7 million viewers had watched opening weekend matches across all platforms, an increase of 59% from the year before.

At face value, those are promising numbers. Taken in more nuanced context, like most of the data from this new streaming era, they still don’t tell us a whole lot.

Apple TV and Oranges

Last weekend’s action was the first since MLS partnered with Apple TV that was available to all Apple TV+ subscribers, rather than only to those who bought a separate MLS Season Pass service.

It also featured arguably the most marketable single regular season match of the entire season in terms of star power, when Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami took on Son Heung-min’s LAFC at the LA Coliseum on Saturday night.

Further, the figure still isn’t comparable to the standard Nielsen TV data we’re used to. That’s because it represents the entire global lineal TV and streaming audience, whereas Nielsen numbers represent only domestic lineal TV. And for TV advertisers, not all viewers are equal, given the different spending power that exists in different national economies.

Negotiating Leverage?

Lastly, this new viewership disclosure comes against the backdrop of a recently amended and shortened agreement between MLS and Apple TV. Their pact now expires following the 2028-29 season. It was originally set to run through the end of the year 2032.

We don’t know whether the reported 59% jump is primarily the result of removing the MLS Season Pass paywall, or if it also represents an organic jump in interest in the league. We do, however, know that the decision to remove that paywall and shorten the agreement happened in concert. And with the league now set to negotiate a new rights package to begin with the 2029-2030 season, it seems likely MLS pushed for the removal of the Season Pass paywall in order to drive up raw viewership data and its negotiating leverage.

The data released Thursday comes after three years of relatively sparse viewership information. Some of that is understandable, given the industry-wide struggle to present meaningful streaming data without the emergency of a standard measurement similar to Nielsen’s TV ratings. Nonetheless, it means the data that does emerge is more subject to the whims of the rightsholder. In other words, we’re more likely to get the flattering numbers, and less likely to get the troubling ones.

Messi, Son, and Mean vs Median

Lastly, while we know there were 9.7 million viewers, representing a 59% increase from a year ago, we don’t know the distribution of that audience across matches – i.e. whether fans are tuning in to MLS, or just to Messi and Son.

Another data point suggests it’s at least partly the latter.

The 387,271 fans that attended opening weekend games was the largest figure ever for a single match weekend. But there are two caveats:

1. This is only the second opening weekend in MLS history to feature 15 games, since the league only expanded to 30 teams to start 2025.
2. Nearly 20% of that attendance figure came from the Messi-Son showdown seen by a historic crowd of 75,673 at the LA Memorial Coliseum.

The median attendance of the weekend came in Vancouver, where 23,546 fans watched the Whitecaps defeat Real Salt Lake 1-0. That’s a very solid number, but hardly out of line with MLS norms, and a bit beneath the mean weekend attendance of 25,818.

If the Messi vs. Son showdown pulled up the overall attendance average by roughly 10%, it’s safe to assume it had a similar, and perhaps even larger, impact on viewership numbers.