Cardano (ADA) Price: Why the Binance Open Interest Drop Spells Trouble Ahead

TLDR

• Cardano (ADA) dropped out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, falling 3.8% in 24 hours and 10.7% over the past week
• Open Interest on Binance declined from 80% in 2023 to just 22% in 2026, with fragmentation across exchanges weakening price momentum
• Only small holders with fewer than 100 ADA are currently accumulating, while larger holders continue selling
• ADA is trading at $0.26, struggling to break resistance at $0.30 while Bitcoin hovers around $70,000
• Supply distribution shows weak conviction among whale addresses, with most cohorts selling since November 2024

Cardano has fallen out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Bitcoin Cash now holds that position.

The altcoin dropped 3.8% in the past 24 hours. Weekly losses reached 10.7%.

ADA is currently trading at $0.26. The price fell below $0.30 as Bitcoin slipped under the $70,000 level.

Cardano previously threatened to drop below $0.25, marking multi-year lows. Despite the pressure, Grayscale continues adding ADA to its smart contract fund.

Market analysts warned that recent relief rallies would not last. Multiple metrics support this bearish outlook.

Open Interest Shows Troubling Pattern

Data from Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson revealed a major shift in Cardano’s Open Interest distribution. In 2023, Binance held 80% of ADA’s total Open Interest.

That share dropped to just 22% in 2026. Gate.io now leads with 31% of the Open Interest.

High Open Interest concentration on Binance typically fuels altcoin rallies. Fragmented Open Interest across multiple exchanges weakens price momentum.

Solana showed a similar pattern. During its rally from $20 to $200 in 2023, Binance’s Open Interest dominance reached 52%.

As that dominance declined in 2024, Solana’s upward momentum stalled. The same dynamic appears to be affecting Cardano now.

Open Interest has collapsed from $1.6 billion to $334 million. This represents a massive reduction in derivatives market activity.

Whale Distribution Points to Weak Conviction

Supply distribution data from Santiment shows concerning trends. Only addresses holding fewer than 100 ADA are actively accumulating.

Most other holder groups have been selling since November. The only exception is the 1 million to 10 million ADA cohort.

This whale activity signals weak conviction among larger investors. In late 2024, whales were accumulating tokens.

That accumulation period coincided with ADA’s rally from $0.36 to $1.23. The current distribution phase suggests the opposite price action.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of $318 million between February 2 and February 6. Ethereum spot ETFs experienced outflows of $166 million during the same period.

The broader market weakness adds pressure to altcoins like Cardano. Bitcoin’s struggle to hold $70,000 creates a challenging environment.

Technical indicators show neutral momentum. The Relative Strength Index stands at 45.69.

The Chaikin Money Flow reads 0.04, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. Immediate resistance sits at $0.30.

A break above that level could push ADA toward $0.35. However, a drop below $0.25 support would target $0.20 as the next level.

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