OSL Trading Moments: BTC dominance is expected to continue until 2025, ETH shows strong upward momentum

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

The recent correction of Bitcoin price to $91,000 due to rising volatility has caused some analysts to worry about the outlook of the cryptocurrency market. However, top analysts have pointed out that the delay of Bitcoin's parabolic rebound is actually mixed, which may mean that the current bullish trend will continue to develop before reaching a parabolic rise.

It is worth noting that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has performed strongly, with weekly inflows exceeding US$2 billion, holdings exceeding Satoshi Nakamoto, and investor demand increasing by 4% from March 2023. At the same time, Switzerland is taking a groundbreaking move, proposing to require the Swiss National Bank to include Bitcoin in its US$1.03 trillion reserve assets. This move is not only expected to reshape the global financial landscape, but may also have an important impact on Bitcoin price trends.

There have also been some eye-catching movements in the market: an early participant in the Ethereum ICO transferred $2.14 million worth of ETH to Coinbase after nearly nine years of silence; at the same time, a well-known "blockchain bandit" also activated a dormant wallet and transferred $172 million worth of ETH.

Looking ahead to 2025, Bitcoin is still under some pressure, with analysts predicting that prices could fall below $90,000, but then rebound to $120,000. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, predicts that Bitcoin prices could double due to tightening supply. In addition, Binance's record reserve size and the approval of spot ETFs have kept Bitcoin as a major investment asset in 2025. Bitcoin's market dominance at the end of 2024 is expected to continue throughout 2025, while ETH is also showing strong upward momentum.

2. Key data (as of 15:15 HKT on January 1)

• S&P 500: 5,881.63 (+24.01% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,310.79 points (+30.78% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.581% (+69.4 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 108.47 (+7.01% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $93,468.69 (+120.4% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $39.865 billion

• Ethereum: $93,468.69 (+46.1% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $19.067 billion

3. ETF flows (December 31 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$35,932,400

• Ethereum ETF: +$5,318,100

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (January 3, 11:00 p.m.)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 48.4% / Expected: 48.3%

5. Hot News

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3A blockchain game Seraph "Dark Seraph" is about to launch TGE

IRS issues temporary crypto tax relief, allowing CeFi exchange users to bypass tax regulations in 2025

Musk twice tweeted about frogs

Re-staking protocol ether.fi launches Berachain incentive deposit vault

AI16Z becomes Solana’s first AI token with a market cap of over $2 billion

Sonic SVM: 57% of the total SONIC tokens will be allocated to the community, and TGE is scheduled for January 7, 2025

FLock.io announces mainnet launch and token generation event on Base

Binance Labs to invest in 46 projects in 2024, with a focus on blockchain, AI and biotech in 2025

The top three crypto tokens with the largest annual returns are: STRAX, KUJI, and SATS

Matrixport: As competition between Solana and Sui intensifies, Ethereum may face greater competitive pressure in 2025

Musk reposted "Elon Musk is now Kekius Maximus"

Franklin Templeton Releases Crypto Outlook 2025: Regulation, Institutional Adoption and Technological Advances Will Shape the Future

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