PANews reported on July 30th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin remains firmly locked in a narrow range, struggling to break through the $120,000 mark, whilePANews reported on July 30th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin remains firmly locked in a narrow range, struggling to break through the $120,000 mark, while
Viewpoint: Bitcoin is still likely to hit new highs in the medium term, but we need to be wary of short-term momentum exhaustion
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At the macro level, overcrowded short positions in the US dollar pose a potential risk. CFTC data shows traders are heavily shorting the dollar against the yen, with the US dollar having depreciated 10% this year. The market is increasingly vulnerable to short-covering in the US dollar, which could trigger a synchronized sell-off in risky assets such as equities, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the tariff war continues. Attention now turns to upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly US inflation and employment data, which will be crucial in determining the direction of the third quarter. As the impact of tariffs gradually feeds into corporate profit margins and consumer prices, the third quarter could become a key turning point. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's movements. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Policymakers are likely to emphasize data dependence ahead of the key September meeting, at which point the likelihood of a rate cut remains uncertain.
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