ETH Technical Analysis Feb 2

Ethereum’s market structure is stuck in a downtrend; the recovery from recent lows did not break the LH/LL structure, but a breakout above 2.396$ could signal a trend change.

Market Structure Overview

Ethereum (ETH) is exhibiting a clear downtrend in its current market structure. Although the price is trading at 2.378$ with a 3.13% increase in the last 24 hours, the overall structure maintains the lower high/lower low (LH/LL) pattern instead of higher high/higher low (HH/HL). This is confirmed in the multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis where 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/2 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/2 resistances on 1W. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, and since the price remains below EMA20 (2.834$), the short-term bearish structure dominates. Although RSI is at 29.64 in the oversold region, MACD supports the downward momentum with a negative histogram. Main swing lows are 2.157$ (69/100 score) and 2.313$ (65/100), while swing highs stand out at 2.396$ (74/100), 2.604$ (68/100), and 2.958$ (61/100). These levels form critical thresholds for trend continuation or reversal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, the formation of HH/HL structure is required. In the recent period, the price rose from the 2.157$ swing low to the 2.396$ swing high, forming a short-term higher low (HL), but this did not break the overall LH/LL structure. For a true bullish reversal, the price needs to break above 2.396$, form a new higher high (HH), and then break EMA20 to the upside. Although RSI in oversold territory carries recovery potential right now, volume support is weak. There is a bullish continuation target toward the 3.000$ region, but this scenario requires a bullish BOS in MTF.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strongly confirmed with LH/LL. Remaining below the recent 2.396$ swing high increases the risk of testing previous lows (2.313$, 2.157$). A drop below 2.157$ would reinforce the bearish structure with a new lower low (LL) and activate structural targets toward 1.000$ levels. MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance stands at 2.791$; with LH/LL continuing below these levels, bullish change of character (CHoCH) is delayed.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: Sustained break above the 2.396$ swing high converts LH to HL and targets 2.604$ – 2.958$ resistances. This is the key level for downtrend invalidation; a high-volume break gives a CHoCH signal. Bearish BOS: Break below the 2.157$ swing low confirms LL and opens the path below 2.000$. Secondary BOS levels: 2.313$ for support, 2.604$ for resistance. Monitor these levels; market structure is dynamic and can change quickly. For spot trading, check ETH Spot Analysis; for futures, ETH Futures Analysis.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs define the resistances of the downtrend: 2.396$ (74/100 score, most critical), 2.604$ (68/100), and 2.958$ (61/100). These levels indicate LHs; approaching them creates short opportunities, while a break above creates long potential. Rejection at 2.396$ sustains LH/LL and triggers lower tests.

Recent Swing Lows

Swing lows act as supports: 2.157$ (69/100, main support), 2.313$ (65/100). These define LLs; breaks confirm bearish BOS. Since the recent recovery came from 2.157$, this level carries bounce potential with oversold RSI, but remains weak under the overall structure.

Bitcoin Correlation

Despite a 2.19% rise to 79.180$, Bitcoin (BTC) is in a downtrend; Supertrend is bearish and rising dominance is risky for altcoins. BTC supports at 77.546$, 74.604$, 63.235$; resistances at 79.396$, 82.113$, 84.450$. ETH is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC falls below 77.546$, ETH’s LH/LL will accelerate and testing 2.157$ becomes inevitable. A BTC breakout above 82.000$ would support ETH’s bullish BOS, but the current BTC structure requires caution for ETH.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

The overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend continues, with price at 2.378$ testing swing high. Bullish requires BOS above 2.396$, otherwise bearish targets below 2.157$ activate. Resistance dominates in MTF; CHoCH not expected. Monitor the structure, manage risk. Market structures can change rapidly – trade carefully.