In RUNE, RSI at the 39.58 level is signaling approaching oversold conditions, while MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram; the short-term trend is weakening but bottom formation should be monitored.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
As of January 28, 2026, RUNE is trading at the $0.56 level and recorded a 1.75% decline over the last 24 hours, keeping its daily range limited to the $0.56-$0.57 band. Volume is moving at low levels of $8.12 million, indicating a slowdown in momentum. The overall trend direction is downward; the price remains below EMA20 ($0.59) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with resistance clearly emerging at $0.65. From a confluence perspective of momentum oscillators, the bearish alignment of RSI and MACD dominates, but RSI’s decline to 39.58 signals a potential momentum shift on the horizon. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 7 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/1 resistance on the daily, 1 each on the 3-day, and 2 supports/2 resistances on the weekly. This confluence emphasizes the critical importance of the $0.5543 support (score 72/100); in case of a breakdown, the $0.3690 bearish target (score 22) could come into play. Volume confirmation is weak; the lack of volume increase on declines suggests that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Short-term momentum is weak, but approaching oversold conditions is drawing traders’ attention to support levels.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is positioned in the neutral-bearish region at 39.58, not yet reaching the 30 oversold threshold but clearly highlighting momentum loss with recent declines. No regular bearish divergence is observed on the daily chart; as the price makes new lows, RSI is also testing similar lows, supporting the healthy continuation of the downtrend. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, a slight hidden bullish divergence signal is beginning to form: while the price does not make higher lows, RSI is drawing higher bottoms at the base, implying weakening selling momentum. Weekly RSI is stuck around 45, carrying potential for divergence in the long-term trend. Traders should monitor for RSI dipping below 30 and quickly pulling back around the $0.5543 support; such a scenario could be the first sign of a momentum reversal.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
RSI at 39.58 is 8 points away from oversold; this level reflects the momentum flattening out in the narrow-range sessions over the last 24 hours. Historically, RUNE has given strong bounces from the 35-40 RSI band; for example, a 15% rally was observed from similar levels last month. The current position shows that selling pressure is easing but buyers have not yet entered. A breakout toward the 50 level would signal a positive momentum turn, while a drop below 30 would strengthen bearish confluences.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is in bearish mode; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding with negative bars, confirming that bearish momentum is gaining speed. On the daily histogram, the latest bars are deeper than previous negatives, reinforcing the sell signal, but contraction in the histogram is observed on the 4-hour – this is an early warning that momentum may have peaked and is starting to exhaust. The signal line crossover occurred downward in the last week and pushed the price below the $0.59 EMA. This expansion, unsupported by volume, may not be sustainable; traders can view the histogram approaching zero as an opportunity for zero-line crossover. Histogram contraction before reaching the $0.3690 bearish target opens a window for bottom hunters.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
The price is trading below EMA20 ($0.59), confirming that the short-term trend is bearish. The ribbon squeeze between EMA10 and EMA20 reflects uncertainty in momentum; even if the price tests the $0.5750 resistance (score 77/100), the ribbon resistance remains strong. There is no EMA crossover in short-term strength measurement, with the downtrend continuation signal dominating.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
There is pressure above EMA50 ($0.62) and EMA200 ($0.68); the long-term trend will remain weak unless the price approaches these levels. Ribbon dynamics show a bearish bias in the medium term, but the distance to EMA200 leaves room for a potential bounce. MTF confluence shows 1W EMA supports concentrating around $0.5543, making this a key point for trend strength testing.
Bitcoin Correlation
Despite Bitcoin’s 1.21% rise to $89,726, it remains in a downtrend with Supertrend bearish; this situation is risky for altcoins like RUNE. BTC’s main supports are at $88,311, $86,075, and $84,681; if there is no strong rebound from here, the decline in RUNE could deepen. Resistances are at $89,566, $91,262, and $92,961 – if BTC breaks these levels, the bullish $0.7465 target for RUNE (score 26) comes into play. RUNE has high correlation to BTC (0.85 over the last 7 days); rising BTC dominance crushes alt momentum, so if BTC falls below 88k, RUNE could lose $0.5543. Follow BTC levels closely for RUNE Spot Analysis and RUNE Futures Analysis.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
RUNE momentum analysis is bearish-weighted with RSI at 39.58 and MACD negative histogram, but the oversold approach and histogram contraction carry reversal potential. In the short term, the $0.5543 support must hold; a breakdown opens the $0.3690 bearish target, while a close above $0.5750 brings the bullish $0.7465 into play. Volume increase confirmation is awaited, with MTF confluences determining trend strength. The market is volatile; even if momentum oscillators give bottom signals, BTC correlation will be decisive. Observation: If RSI divergence strengthens, buyers will enter.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/rune-rsi-macd-analysis-january-28-2026-momentum-assessment
