The current market structure indicates a downtrend – LH/LL patterns dominate, but short-term recovery signals are being monitored.
Market Structure Overview
AVAX is trading at $12.08 as of January 27, 2026, showing a 3.69% rise in the last 24 hours. The market structure is generally bearish: Recent lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) indicate ongoing bearish pressure. The higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) structure is broken, confirming the downward trend. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, and the price is below EMA20 ($12.68). RSI is at 38.82, close to oversold but with weak momentum. MACD shows a negative histogram, bearish. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 9 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels are key points that will determine structural breaks.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
Bullish signals are currently limited. The price tested the last swing low at $11.58 and bounced up, but failed to break the $12.1250 resistance. For HH/HL structure, the price needs to break a swing high above $12.5845 and form a new higher high. The short-term 3.69% rise can be supported by a local higher low ($11.58), but it remains weak as long as it’s below EMA20. Bullish continuation target is $17.3976 (score:31/100), but this requires strong volume and BOS.
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: Last swing high $12.1250 (69/100), lower than previous highs; swing lows $11.2370 (73/100) and $11.8800 (68/100) form the LL pattern. Price is stuck at $12.08 in this range, aligned with bearish Supertrend resistance at $13.75. If LH/LL continues and $11.2370 breaks, a new LL forms, with bearish breakdown target $7.0983 (score:22/100). RSI is declining, momentum could increase, stay cautious.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) confirms trend changes. For bullish BOS, a close above the $12.1250 swing high (69/100) is required – this breaks the last LH, signals transition to HL, and creates CHoCH (Change of Character). Then $12.5845 (64/100) is targeted. Bearish BOS is a close below $11.8800 support: This breaks the LL, opening the path to $11.2370. In MTF, 1W resistances (around $12.58) are strong; if unbroken, the downtrend remains intact. BOS levels: Bullish $12.1250+, Bearish $11.8800-.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
$12.1250 (score:69/100): Main resistance on daily timeframe, last LH. Break leads to bullish BOS, target $12.5845. $12.5845 (64/100): 3D timeframe resistance, critical in MTF – breaking it starts HH formation, signals trend shift. These swings maintain the LH pattern, price was rejected here.
Recent Swing Lows
$11.8800 (68/100): Short-term support, held the 24h low at $11.58. Break increases bearish momentum. $11.2370 (73/100): Strong 1D/1W support, LL test point – hold creates local HL, break leads to new lows. Swing lows strengthen the LL structure, price reacted here.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $89,393, up 2.04% but downtrend continues. BTC supports $88,314 / $86,576 / $85,129; resistances $88,954 / $91,039 / $94,437. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance risky for altcoins. AVAX highly correlated with BTC: If BTC slips below $88,314, AVAX tests $11.88 support. If BTC breaks $91,039, AVAX bullish BOS chance increases, potentially triggering $12.1250 break. BTC downside reinforces AVAX LH/LL – altcoin caution mode active.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
AVAX structure is bearish: LH/LL dominant, price squeezed below resistance at $12.08. To keep the trend intact, it must hold above $11.8800, otherwise $11.2370 LL breaks. Bullish shift requires $12.1250 BOS and BTC support. MTF levels are resistance-heavy, short-term recovery limited. Detailed data available in AVAX Spot Analysis and AVAX Futures Analysis. Structures are dynamic, follow regularly. (Word count: ~1050)
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/avax-market-structure-january-27-2026-trend-analysis
