Bitcoin Faces Macro Headwinds but Institutions Remain Bullish

A Coinbase survey found that around 71% of institutional investors believe Bitcoin is undervalued while trading between $85,000 and $95,000, even as it underperforms gold, silver, and equities. Despite a nearly 30% pullback from its October peak, most institutions report holding or increasing their crypto exposure and say they would buy on further declines. This long-term conviction is also reflected in Colombia, where AFP Protección, the country’s second-largest private pension fund manager, is preparing to launch a tightly controlled Bitcoin-linked investment option for qualified clients.

Institutions See Bitcoin as Undervalued

A majority of institutional investors believe Bitcoin is undervalued at current levels. This is according to new research from Coinbase, even as the cryptocurrency continues to lag behind traditional assets like precious metals and equities. 

In its Charting Crypto Q1 2026 report, Coinbase said that roughly 71% of institutional respondents and 60% of independent investors that were surveyed felt Bitcoin was undervalued while trading in the $85,000 to $95,000 range. The survey was conducted between early December and early January, and it included 75 institutional investors and 73 independent investors.

(Source: Coinbase)

During the survey window, Bitcoin remained range-bound between $85,000 and $95,000, a level that 25% of institutions described as fairly valued. Only a small minority, around 4%, believed Bitcoin was overvalued.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $87,800, down close to 30% from its October all-time high of $126,080, according to data from CoinCodex. The pullback followed a sharp market crash on Oct. 10 that wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions, triggering a broader risk-off environment across digital assets.

BTC’s price action over the past 6 months (Source: CoinCodex)

Since that downturn, crypto markets struggled to regain momentum. Coinbase pointed to geopolitical uncertainty as a key drag on sentiment. Tariff threats from the Trump administration and escalating tensions between the United States and the Middle East certainly did not help matters. The firm warned that further geopolitical escalation, especially any disruption to global energy markets, could weigh even more on investor confidence in risk assets, including crypto.

On the other hand, traditional safe-haven assets have performed strongly. Gold recently surged to a record high above $5,000, while silver doubled in market value since October. Equity markets have delivered more modest gains, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 rising about 3% over the same period.

Despite this backdrop, institutional conviction in crypto still seems largely intact. Coinbase found that 80% of institutional investors said they would either hold their current positions or buy more if the crypto market were to fall another 10%. More than 60% reported that they have held or increased their exposure since Bitcoin’s October peak, suggesting a long-term view rather than short-term capitulation. 

(Source: Coinpaper)

Additionally, 54% of institutions described the current market environment as either an accumulation phase or a bear market, indicating expectations for future upside rather than a structural decline.

Looking ahead, Coinbase sees potential macroeconomic tailwinds for crypto. While acknowledging uncertainty around monetary policy, the firm expects the Federal Reserve to deliver two interest rate cuts in 2026, which could support risk-on assets. 

Colombia Pension Fund Prepares Bitcoin Investment Option

Colombia’s pension sector is also confident in Bitcoin. In fact, AFP Protección is preparing to launch an investment fund that offers exposure to Bitcoin. 

Protección is the country’s second-largest private pension and severance fund manager, and the initiative was confirmed by its president, Juan David Correa, in an interview with local outlet Valora Analitik. According to Correa, access to the Bitcoin-linked product will be tightly controlled and offered only through a personalized advisory process that evaluates each client’s risk profile, financial situation, and investment objectives.

X post from Valore Analitik

The planned fund will allow eligible clients to allocate a limited portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, rather than providing broad or automatic exposure. Correa explained that diversification is the primary motivation behind the initiative, and described Bitcoin as an alternative asset that may have a place alongside traditional investments for certain investors. He stressed that participation will be optional and restricted to those who meet specific criteria.

Protección’s move follows a similar decision by Skandia Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantías, which introduced Bitcoin exposure in one of its portfolios in September of last year. With Protección entering the space, it becomes the second major pension fund administrator in Colombia to formally offer Bitcoin-related investment options.

The company has been careful to position the new fund as a complement rather than a replacement for core pension investments. Protección made it very clear that the bulk of pension savings will continue to be allocated to fixed income instruments, equities, and other traditional assets that form the foundation of long-term retirement planning. The Bitcoin-linked fund is designed as an additional option for qualified investors looking for diversification, not as a shift in overall investment strategy.