Analysis: The cryptocurrency options market is betting on downside protection, exhibiting an asymmetric risk where "negative reactions outweigh positive ones."

PANews reported on January 20th that, according to The Block, the crypto options market is currently reflecting a more cautious stance. Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz, pointed out that despite increasing downside hedging demand, Bitcoin volatility has fallen to multi-month lows. The Bitcoin 25-delta skew index has clearly turned negative, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hedge against further price declines, with option prices implying a probability of approximately 30% that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by the end of June.

Kraken Vice President Matt Howells-Barby stated that the crypto market has exhibited asymmetric downside risk in recent months, reacting far more violently to negative news than to positive catalysts. However, he believes the current pullback has been relatively limited, potentially indicating that the market is merely preparing for short-term volatility related to policy statements, rather than shifting towards a sustained risk-averse mode.