Drop To $86,500 On The Cards

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects a market under pressure as bearish signals gain traction. BTC has struggled to sustain upward momentum, reinforcing a corrective outlook in the short term. 

Reversing this trajectory requires patience from investors and improved macroeconomic conditions. At present, Bitcoin appears to have only one of those factors working in its favor.

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Bitcoin Holders Are Gaining Profits, But Not Selling Yet

On-chain sentiment indicators highlight stress among newer BTC participants. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) shows that new investors have remained in net unrealized losses since November 2025. This prolonged drawdown suggests reduced confidence among short-term holders, often associated with corrective market phases.

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Historically, Bitcoin has transitioned into sustained uptrends once price reclaims and holds above the Short-Term Holder cost basis. For the current cycle, that threshold sits near $98,000. Until BTC recovers this level, the STH cohort remains underwater, limiting aggressive risk-taking and reinforcing cautious sentiment.

The persistence of negative STH-NUPL indicates distribution pressure whenever the price attempts to rally. Newer holders tend to exit positions near breakeven during recoveries. This behavior caps upside momentum and delays trend reversals, making $98,000 a critical psychological and technical level for restoring broader market confidence.

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BTC Old Wallets May Have Some Say

Macro momentum indicators suggest Bitcoin is entering a cooling phase rather than a speculative expansion. Hot Capital Share has declined from 37.6% to 35.5%, approaching its lower statistical band. This shift indicates reduced short-term speculation and a growing influence from older, more patient capital.

Long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, reinforcing structural stability within the market. Their sustained HODLing behavior has historically limited downside volatility during corrections. This accumulation provides Bitcoin with a critical support base, helping prevent disorderly declines despite weakening short-term demand.

Is BTC Price Safe From Correction?

Bitcoin is forming a slanted double top pattern on the short-term timeframe, a structure that typically signals bearish continuation. While such patterns often precede declines, broader on-chain and macro factors reduce the probability of an immediate, sharp sell-off. Long-term holder support remains a mitigating factor against aggressive downside.

BTC is currently holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $90,914. A successful bounce from this zone could stabilize price action. Defending this support may allow Bitcoin to recover toward $94,000, which would weaken the double top structure and delay bearish confirmation.

However, downside risks remain elevated. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin could fall below $90,000 as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Greenland intensifies.

If this stands to be true and BTC decisively breaks below $90,000, the double top pattern’s projected 6% decline would come into focus. This scenario targets a move toward $86,558. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement sits at $86,987, a level previously tested as support. A drop into this zone would invalidate the bullish thesis and confirm a deeper corrective phase.