SOL’s momentum indicators highlight short-term bearish pressure: The MACD histogram is expanding in the negative zone, the price continues to stay below EMA20, and RSI signals weakness at neutral levels.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
Solana (SOL) is trading at the $131.82 level as of January 20, 2026, recording a slight 0.95% decline in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between $131.07-$135.16, with trading volume at an notable $2.93 billion. However, this volume indicates a distribution pattern confirming the downward price movement. The overall trend direction is confirmed as bearish; the Supertrend indicator gives a bear signal, and the resistance level stands out at $150.37. From a momentum perspective, the indicators highlight short-term weakness. Although RSI on a 14-period is at 44.18 in a neutral position, the MACD’s negative histogram and the price trading below EMA20 ($136.98) show that the trend strength is waning and sellers are dominant. Multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment is also noteworthy: A total of 12 strong levels have been identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts, with configurations of 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/2 resistances on 1W. This confluence highlights critical supports like $128.84 (score 76/100). An upward bounce without volume confirmation looks difficult; the current volume supports the decline.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 44.18 and positioned in the neutral zone, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions. There is no trace of regular divergence recently; since the price is making new lows while RSI stays at similar levels, there is potential for hidden bearish divergence. Especially on the 1D chart, the fact that RSI did not drop below 40 at the intraday low of $131.07 implies that sellers’ momentum has not yet exhausted. If RSI declines toward 30 and the price fails to hold support, a regular bearish divergence could form, potentially triggering a deeper correction. Conversely, if RSI breaks above 50 and the price surpasses the $132.67 resistance (score 63/100), the ground for bullish divergence would be set. For now, divergence confluence is weak; RSI indicates that overall momentum is slowing but not producing a strong enough signal to reverse direction.
Overbought/Oversold Zones
RSI at 44.18 is far from overbought (70+) or oversold (30-) zones. This neutral position signals that the market is in a consolidation phase, but dropping below the 50 level alongside the 24-hour decline emphasizes sellers’ slight superiority. A volume-supported RSI decline could increase pressure toward the $128.84 support. Historically, SOL has experienced increased volatility when stuck in the 40-45 RSI band; a similar scenario is expected here.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
The MACD status is clearly bearish: The signal line is below the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. This dynamic shows downward momentum acceleration; the size of the histogram bars has increased over the last 3 days, confirming sellers’ strength. There has been no recent signal line crossover, but negative divergence is present – as the price falls, the MACD histogram becomes more negative. If the histogram tests the zero line on 1H and 4H charts, a short-term recovery is possible, but it won’t invalidate the daily bear signal. In confluence with volume, MACD expansion could target the $124.73 support (score 64/100). For a bullish scenario, histogram contraction and a crossover above zero are required.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
The price is trading below EMA20 ($136.98), confirming the short-term trend as bearish. There is congestion between EMA10 and EMA20; while ribbon contraction indicates waning trend strength, the price testing both EMAs downward reinforces seller dominance. If the daily close remains below EMA20, the ribbon turns bearish, and the $132.67 resistance (score 63/100) gains significance.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 form resistance around $140; reaching those levels would require strong momentum. The long-term EMA200 could act as support near $150, but it conflicts with the Supertrend’s bear signal. In the EMA ribbon, the lower bands are sloping downward, reflecting weakened momentum in this trend strength measure. Support confluence concentrates at $128.84 and $116.88 (scores 76 and 65/100); EMA tests there could create buying opportunities, but volume confirmation is essential.
Bitcoin Correlation
SOL moves in high correlation with BTC; BTC is currently at $91,004.98 with a 1.70% decline in 24 hours, in a sideways trend. BTC’s critical supports are $90,373, $88,335, and $84,681; resistances are $92,426, $94,159, and $98,587. BTC Supertrend being bearish is a warning signal for altcoins: SOL’s relative strength against BTC is weak, and increasing dominance could create alt pressure. If BTC breaks $90,373 support, a sharp drop to $124.73 in SOL is expected. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $92,426, recovery confluence forms for SOL in the context of SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis. Key BTC level to watch: A break below 90,000 would further deteriorate SOL momentum.
Momentum Summary and Expectations
SOL’s momentum synthesis is bear-focused: RSI neutral but divergence risky, MACD histogram expanding negatively, EMAs providing short-term resistance and ribbon bearish. Volume decline confirms, MTF confluence emphasizes supports. Bull target at $175.20 (low score 31) is distant, while bear target at $91.21 (score 22) seems more realistic. Critical levels: Support $128.84 (high score), resistance $136.85 (score 82/100). Momentum is weak; upside movement remains limited without a $136.85 breakout. Market is volatile, no news flow but high BTC dependency. Short-term consolidation, support breakdown brings deepening.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/sol-what-do-momentum-indicators-say-january-20-2026-analysis
