Intel (INTC) Stock: Is It a Buy Ahead of Thursday’s Earnings?

TLDR

• Intel reports Q4 2025 earnings on January 22, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.08 (down 38.5% year-over-year) and revenue of $13.40 billion (down 6%)
• Jefferies raised price target to $45 but kept Hold rating, citing server demand gains offset by tight production capacity and margin pressure from new chip launches
• RBC Capital initiated coverage with Sector Perform rating at $50, noting progress on balance sheet and Nvidia partnership but flagging AI strategy gaps
• Wall Street holds consensus Hold rating with average price target of $43.37, implying 7.64% downside from current levels
• Intel stock surged 116-145% in 2025 but faces challenges from PC market weakness expected in March, higher memory costs, and foundry business uncertainty

Intel Corporation reports its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after market close on Thursday, January 22. The timing comes as the chipmaker trades near its 52-week high following a year of triple-digit gains.

Intel Corporation, INTC

The stock rallied 116-145% over the past year. Major catalysts included a partnership with Nvidia and progress on 18A chip technology. U.S. government support also boosted investor confidence.

Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.08 for the quarter. That represents a 38.5% decline from the same period last year. Revenue forecasts sit at $13.40 billion, down 6% year-over-year.

Analysts remain split on the stock’s direction. The consensus rating is Hold, based on eight Buy ratings, 19 Hold ratings, and four Sell ratings. The average price target of $43.37 implies potential downside of 7.64% from current levels.

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis raised his price target to $45 from $40 while maintaining a Hold rating. The five-star analyst pointed to improving server demand heading into 2026. However, he warned that Intel faces production capacity constraints.

The company is shifting Intel 7/10 capacity away from low-end PCs toward legacy server products. This reallocation creates supply limitations that could prevent Intel from fully capitalizing on server demand.

Curtis expects PC market weakness to begin in March. His projections show PCs could decline by at least mid-single digits. Rising memory costs may force manufacturers to reduce specifications or raise prices.

Margin Pressure From New Chip Launches

The analyst flagged margin concerns as Intel ramps up production of Lunar Lake chips and its 18A process. He expects margins to fall below 36%, compared to Street expectations of 36.1%. This represents a 200 basis point decline from December consensus estimates.

Intel’s current gross profit margin stands at 33.02%. The company plans to insource 70% of Panther Lake processor manufacturing by Q1 2026. Initial supply constraints are expected during the ramp-up period.

Curtis characterized Intel’s expected full-year guidance as “relatively disappointing.” Capacity constraints will limit revenue potential from server products. PC weakness and margin pressure are expected to persist throughout the year.

New Coverage Flags AI Strategy Gaps

RBC Capital analyst Srini Pajjuri initiated coverage with a Sector Perform rating and $50 price target. The five-star analyst credited management with progress on resizing the business and strengthening the balance sheet.

Pajjuri noted that PC and server demand looks healthy. Intel’s products are becoming more competitive in the market. The Nvidia partnership adds credibility to Intel’s manufacturing capabilities.

However, he identified near-term headwinds including higher memory prices and supply limitations. These factors could pressure both revenue and margins in coming quarters.

The analyst said Intel lacks a clear data center AI story. Further stock gains depend on margin improvement and progress in the foundry business. Visibility remains limited in the foundry division, where production delays continue.

Intel stock currently trades at $48.32, near its 52-week high of $50.39. Analyst price targets range from $20.40 to $60, reflecting divided opinions on the semiconductor company’s prospects.

The company’s CEO recently met with President Donald Trump, who praised Intel’s launch of a new sub-2 nanometer CPU processor. Mobileye, an Intel subsidiary, announced a $900 million acquisition of Mentee Robotics expected to close in early 2026.

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