Trading Moment: With the non-farm payrolls report and tariffs as double tests, has Bitcoin bottomed out and is it poised to surge to 95,000 again?

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The A-share market had a strong start to the first week back to work after the New Year holiday, with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, marking the fifth time in A-share history that this level has been surpassed. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through 4100 points. This week's key uncertainties in the market include Friday's US December non-farm payroll report , the Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of tariffs , and Saturday's decision on tariffs on key minerals (which will significantly impact Comex silver and platinum group metal prices). If the tariffs are overturned, while this could boost corporate profits, it could also put pressure on US Treasury bonds due to concerns about fiscal deficits.

The precious metals market also experienced increased volatility, with silver prices plunging ahead of expectations due to a potential sell-off of approximately $7 billion driven by anticipated annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, despite the founder of Bawden Capital setting a high target of $200/ounce based on factors such as physical shortages and Chinese export restrictions. However, Citigroup pointed out that due to the US's heavy reliance on silver imports, silver prices might temporarily correct as metal outflows from the US were not imposed, while palladium is most likely to be subject to high tariffs, with Citigroup predicting a rate as high as 50%.

Bitcoin rebounded to a low of $89,311 after rising to nearly $95,000, and is currently consolidating around $91,000. Bullish analyst cloakmk, analyzing the weekly chart, believes the long-term bullish structure is solid, with the price supported by the trendline. Although there is a risk of short-term consolidation, the overall structure remains intact. His technical analysis points to the 50-day moving average at $88,000 and the 200-day moving average at $75,000, with the golden cross still present. Key support lies in the $85,000-$88,000 range, with a medium-term target of $110,000-$130,000, and an optimistic target of $150,000. Traders Sykodelic_ and VegetaCrypto1 also hold a positive view, focusing on targets of $93,600 and $98,000-$100,000 respectively.

However, bearish and cautious views also exist. TaiBai believes that if the $91,200-$91,500 resistance level cannot be broken, it presents a potential shorting opportunity. AshCrypto points out that there is still a CME gap at $88,200 that needs to be filled. Trader Roman maintains his bearish target of $76,000. Institutionally, Grayscale is optimistic about new highs in the first half of 2026, while JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that the recent sell-off may be nearing its end.

Ethereum fell back to around $3,000 after hitting $3,300. Lennart Snyder maintains a bearish view, planning to short at the monthly opening price of $2,970 with a stop loss at $3,190. He also noted that he would only consider short-term trading if the intraday rebound test fails. Ash Crypto went even further, stating that if Ethereum, despite its dominance in ETFs and DeFi and its deflationary mechanism, fails to break its all-time high in 2026, the bullish logic for altcoins will completely collapse. After all, compared to Bitcoin's rebound of twice its initial value, Ethereum's performance has clearly lagged behind, which may indicate an increased risk of holding altcoins long-term.

Public blockchain projects in the altcoin market have recently shown some improvement. Solana is considered by renowned trader Eugene to be the strongest performing mainstream coin, with a target price of $160. If Bitcoin rebounds to $100,000, then SOL could also reach $200. Currently, SOL has rebounded to above $140. In addition, Polygon (POL) surged 15% in a single day and nearly 50% this month due to the launch of its Open Money Stack technology framework and its near completion of the acquisition of Bitcoin ATM company Coinme (the transaction amount is estimated to be between $100 million and $125 million). Although Optimism (OP) proposed to use 50% of Superchain's revenue for token buybacks starting in February, its price did not rebound as a result. The attempt to drive up the token price through buybacks may have failed after the trial and error of Jupiter's $70 million JUP buyback. (Related reading: Jupiter's millions of dollars "go down the drain," what will save the price after the buyback fails? ) Conversely, privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) experienced a governance turmoil due to the departure of its development team, causing its price to plummet by 20% to $381. Although the Zcash Foundation clarified that network operations were unaffected and the price has rebounded somewhat, analysts still give a pessimistic target of $200-$300. Furthermore, the Truebit protocol suffered an attack, losing 8,535 ETH. Currently, according to CoinGecko data, the price of the token TRU is almost zero.

The hype surrounding Chinese memes reignited after Binance announced the listing of "Binance Life" on January 7th. On January 8th, "I'm Coming!" was listed on Binance Alpha, surging 400% and briefly reaching a market capitalization of $17 million, before dropping to around $12 million. Related Chinese meme tokens such as "Hakimi" rose over 20%. Furthermore, He Yi's tweet about "Mom" sparked social media attention for a token of the same name, which surged 300% in six hours, currently boasting a market capitalization of around $1.3 million. A series of Chinese meme tokens related to "Dad," "Son," and "Grandson" have also emerged. Meanwhile, the intrinsic value of these Chinese memes is generating considerable debate within the community. (*Note: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research.)

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 9)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $90,858 (year-to-date +7.8%), daily spot trading volume $42.95 billion.

• Ethereum: $3,110 (year-to-date +4.3%), daily spot trading volume $25.22 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 27 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, MED, ZKP

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.77% / 50.23%

• Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency stocks generally declined, with RWA leading the drop at nearly 5%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 71,935 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $199 million. This included $41.42 million in BTC liquidations, $45.12 million in ETH liquidations, and $21.72 million in ZEC liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$400 million, net outflow for three consecutive days

• Ethereum ETF: -$159 million, with BlackRock ETHA accounting for over 60%.

• XRP ETF: +$8.72 million

• SOL ETF: +$13.64 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch DeepNode (DN) airdrop on January 9th.

• Binance will delist several spot trading pairs, including 1000 SATS/FDUSD and AEVO/BTC, on January 9th.

• The US Supreme Court may rule on tariffs (January 9).

• US December unemployment rate: expected 4.5%, previous 4.6% (January 9, 21:30)

• US December Non-Farm Payrolls Change (in thousands): Expected 6.5%, Previous 6.4 (January 9, 21:30)

• The results of the US Section 232 tariff investigation may be released on January 10.

• Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 164 million tokens at 8 PM Beijing time on January 9th, representing 5.77% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $6.1 million.

• Linea (LINEA) will unlock approximately 1.38 billion tokens at 7 PM Beijing time on January 10th, representing 6.34% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $9.8 million.

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 10:00 AM Beijing time on January 11th, representing 0.70% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $21.6 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today: POL up 15.7%, Story up 5.5%, Monero up 4.5%, Tezos up 4%, and Solana up 3.3%.

5. Hot News

• Bitmine has staked over one million ETH, representing a quarter of its total holdings.

• Truebit suffers security breach, over 8,500 ETH stolen.

• Polygon is close to finalizing its acquisition of Bitcoin ATM company Coinme, in a deal estimated at $100 million to $125 million.

• The long positions held by "Strategy's counterparty" have exceeded $200 million.

• Morgan Stanley plans to launch a digital wallet this year to support tokenized assets.

• Optimism proposes to use 50% of Superchain's revenue to buy back OP tokens.

• Changpeng Zhao: The Chinese version of my memoir may be titled "Binance Life," which has nothing to do with Meme coin.

• ZEC fell more than 18% intraday after the entire ECC team, the support organization for Zcash, resigned.

• PANews data: 63% of short-term markets on Polymarket had zero trading volume in the past 24 hours, and 505 top contracts accounted for 47% of the trading volume.