Potential $11.6 Billion Bitcoin Outflows Loom If MSCI Excludes Crypto Treasury Firms

• Outflows Projection: Analysts from JPMorgan estimate $11.6 billion total impact, with MicroStrategy facing $2.8 billion alone as the largest affected firm.

• BitcoinForCorporations campaigns against the rule, highlighting 39 companies with $113 billion in market cap at risk.

• Industry Backlash: Firms like Strive and MicroStrategy object, arguing the policy biases against crypto and ignores operational realities, with a petition garnering 1,268 signatures.

MSCI crypto treasury exclusion threatens $11.6B outflows, pressuring Bitcoin prices. Learn implications for firms like MicroStrategy and why experts urge reversal. Stay informed on index changes affecting your investments.

What is the Potential Impact of MSCI Excluding Crypto Treasury Firms?

MSCI crypto treasury exclusion could lead to significant forced liquidations, with estimates pointing to $10-15 billion in cryptocurrency sales. This stems from a proposed rule barring companies where digital assets exceed 50% of their balance sheets from key indexes. Such a change would affect passive funds’ holdings, amplifying selling pressure on already volatile crypto markets that have declined for nearly three months.

How Would This Rule Affect Major Players Like MicroStrategy?

The proposed MSCI policy targets firms like MicroStrategy, where Bitcoin holdings dominate the balance sheet. According to JPMorgan’s analysis, MicroStrategy alone could face $2.8 billion in outflows, representing 74.5% of the total impacted market capitalization. BitcoinForCorporations, a advocacy group, compiled a preliminary list of 39 such companies totaling $113 billion in float-adjusted market cap. This exclusion would not reflect changes in their core operations, revenue streams, or customer bases but solely their asset allocation choices. Experts note that passive index funds, which track MSCI benchmarks, manage trillions in assets and must adjust holdings accordingly, potentially flooding the market with Bitcoin sales. As of recent data, the group’s petition against the rule has collected 1,268 signatures, underscoring widespread industry concern.

In a tweet dated December 17, 2025, George Mekhail outlined the implications of MSCI’s proposed 50% digital asset treasury exclusion rule, emphasizing the broader market effects through an attached image.

Why Balance Sheet Composition Is Not a Fair Metric for Inclusion

MSCI announced in October 2025 that it is consulting the investment community on excluding crypto treasury companies where digital assets form the majority of balance sheets. These indexes are pivotal benchmarks for passive funds, dictating investment allocations worth billions and influencing companies’ capital access.

BitcoinForCorporations argues that relying on a single balance sheet metric is flawed. “A single balance sheet metric cannot reflect whether a company is an operating business. The rule would remove companies even when their customers, revenue, operations, and business model remain unchanged,” the group stated in its petition. They advocate for evaluations based on actual business models, financial performance, and operational traits instead. MSCI’s final decision is due by January 15, 2026, with any changes implemented in the February 2026 Index Review.

This debate highlights tensions between traditional finance metrics and emerging crypto strategies. MicroStrategy, for instance, has maintained its Nasdaq 100 inclusion despite initial concerns, demonstrating resilience in index qualifications. However, the MSCI rule could set a precedent, affecting how institutional investors view crypto exposure in corporate treasuries.

Growing Industry Objections to MSCI’s Crypto Exclusion Proposal

Objections to MSCI’s proposal have intensified, with prominent voices in finance and crypto raising alarms. On December 5, 2025, Nasdaq-listed Strive urged MSCI to “let the market decide” on including Bitcoin-holding companies in passive investments, arguing for investor choice over arbitrary restrictions.

A few days later, MicroStrategy echoed this in a formal letter, contending that the policy change introduces bias against crypto as an asset class. Rather than maintaining neutrality, it would penalize innovative treasury strategies, potentially stifling corporate adoption of digital assets. The company, led by Michael Saylor, has positioned Bitcoin as a superior reserve asset, with holdings now central to its financial strategy.

These responses reflect broader concerns in the crypto ecosystem. Analysts from firms like JPMorgan have quantified the risks, projecting total outflows of $11.6 billion across affected entities. Such volumes could exacerbate the three-month downward trend in crypto prices, where Bitcoin has faced sustained selling pressure from macroeconomic factors and regulatory uncertainties.

The investment community’s input during MSCI’s consultation period underscores the stakes. Indexes like those from MSCI guide over $15 trillion in assets globally, per industry reports. Excluding crypto treasuries might signal to traditional investors that digital assets remain high-risk, even as adoption grows among corporations seeking inflation hedges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Companies Are Most at Risk from MSCI Crypto Treasury Exclusion?

Companies like MicroStrategy, with substantial Bitcoin holdings comprising over 50% of their balance sheets, face the greatest risk. BitcoinForCorporations identified 39 such firms with a combined $113 billion in float-adjusted market cap, potentially leading to $10-15 billion in crypto sales if excluded.

How Might MSCI’s Decision Affect Bitcoin Prices in 2026?

If implemented, the exclusion could introduce significant selling pressure from passive funds reallocating billions, potentially driving Bitcoin prices lower amid existing market volatility. However, industry pushback and MSCI’s consultation may alter or delay the outcome, with a final announcement expected by January 15, 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Outflow Magnitude: Up to $15 billion in crypto sales projected, with JPMorgan estimating $11.6 billion total impact across 39 companies.
• MicroStrategy’s Exposure: As the dominant player, it could see $2.8 billion in outflows, highlighting the rule’s disproportionate effect on leading adopters.
• Call to Action: Support petitions like BitcoinForCorporations’ to advocate for fair indexing based on operations, not just balance sheets—monitor MSCI’s January 2026 update.

Conclusion

The proposed MSCI crypto treasury exclusion rule poses a critical challenge to corporate Bitcoin strategies, potentially triggering $11.6 billion in outflows and intensifying market pressures. With objections from Strive, MicroStrategy, and advocacy groups emphasizing operational integrity over balance sheet composition, the investment community awaits MSCI’s January 15, 2026, decision. As crypto integration evolves, stakeholders should prepare for index shifts that could redefine treasury management—consider diversifying holdings to mitigate risks in this dynamic landscape.