Analysis: While there has been progress in cryptocurrency regulation, structural risks remain.
PANews reported on December 18th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that the Federal Reserve's cautious signals and the flattening of the interest rate path have created a mix of market confidence and caution at the end of the year. The FOMC's "hawkish rate cut" aims to stabilize employment and control inflation, with policy decisions dependent on data. The dot plot shows a median interest rate of 3.25%-3.5% at the next meeting, with a flatter interest rate path expected in 2026, and the market anticipating approximately 2.3 rate cuts. Non-farm payroll data remained unchanged, making CPI a key short-term factor, while the Fed's bond purchases eased liquidity constraints. Furthermore, the stock market and artificial intelligence remain key factors influencing macroeconomic trends. If income fails to match investment, the risk extends beyond a correction in the AI sector and could trigger a broader stock market valuation reset. Given the central role of AI in this year's market performance, it is undoubtedly a key variable for 2026.
Furthermore, cryptocurrencies remain susceptible to the complexities of the macroeconomic environment. Besides the lack of short-term drivers, new structural risks have emerged. MSCI is reassessing the index eligibility of digital asset financial companies, and those holding more than 50% cryptocurrency exposure may be excluded. Strategy has submitted mitigation measures, but a clearer picture is not expected until mid-January, with implementation potentially in February. However, there are also signs of long-term progress. The regulatory environment is gradually shifting in a more favorable direction. Japan has revised its legislation to provide clearer rules for digital assets, enhancing the legitimacy of its institutions. While Japan's approach to digital asset regulation is relatively conservative, adopting a securities-like regulatory model, this may help attract more institutional participation in the long run. Currently, while the market remains stable, the balance between resilience and vulnerability is more delicate than it appears.
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