Gemini Soars 13% After CFTC Approval For US Prediction Market

Gemini shares soared 13% after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved its plan to launch a prediction market in the US. 

Gemini share price (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The platform will allow users to bet on the outcomes of a series of real-world events via “yes or no contracts,” the exchange said in a Dec. 10 announcement, adding that US customers will soon be able to trade the event contracts on the exchange’s web interface using USD. Mobile support for the events contracts will follow shortly, it said.  

“Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini,” said the exchange’s co-founder and CEO, Tyler Winklevoss. 

“We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto and Acting Chairman [Caroline] Pham for her hard work and dedication to help realize President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world,” he said. “It’s incredibly refreshing and invigorating to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro crypto, pro innovation, and pro America.”

His brother and fellow Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss also praised the CFTC Acting Chair’s innovation-friendly policies. 

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” he said. ”Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro business, pro innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.”

Gemini’s prediction market also puts it on-track to realize its goal of creating a crypto super app. In its third-quarter earnings call, the exchange said that it will create in-house solutions as opposed to relying on third-party providers. 

Gemini Entering A Competitive Space

Gemini’s planned entrance into the prediction markets space comes amid growing competition. 

Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the market currently in terms of monthly volumes, and have both experienced record activity in the past two months. With regards to the US market, Kalshi maintains the lead, but it will face intensified competition from Polymarket after the CFTC cleared it to re-enter the US market. 

Those two platforms’ dominance grew following a series of integrations and partnerships, including with Google, X, and the UFC.

Prediction markets’ trading volume by month (Source: Token Terminal)

Other heavy-weight competitors aim to muscle in on the rapidly-growing market. Among them is Robinhood Markets, which partnered with Kalsh earlier this year. In its latest earnings call, Robinhood said that prediction markets were among its fastest-growing businesses in 2025. 

Binance Launches Predict.fun On BNB Chain

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, aka CZ, also announced last week the launch of prediction market called Predict.fun on BNB Chain, while sports giant Fanatics entered the space through a partnership with Crypto.com.

In a Dec. 3 post on X, CZ welcomed Predict.Fun to the BNB Chain, adding that it was created by a former Binance employee and that his family office, YZi Labs, incubated and invested in the platform.

CZ said the market will make it possible for users to earn yields with the capital they place on bets, addressing industry calls for funds to be less idle on prediction markets platforms.

Polymarket and Kalshi have also recently implemented similar mechanisms, including layered-staking rewards, treasury incentives, and points systems to keep users engaged.