Bitcoin on-chain data just flashed critical bearish signal that CryptoQuant warns marks a verified cycle top

On Dec. 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju made the feared call that “most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish.”

He added, “Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.”

The CEO was explicit. He tied his argument to his firm’s composite on-chain dashboards and a global-liquidity framework, framing the November drawdown not as a healthy correction but as the opening act of a new secular downtrend.

The question is whether on-chain data and the liquidity backdrop actually support a bear cycle thesis, or whether Ki is reading stress signals in a bull market as the start of crypto winter.

The case for a new bear cycle

CryptoQuant’s metrics, such as Bull Score, MVRV, miner flows, and stablecoin liquidity, signal a new bear-market cycle. The numbers compare with the first quarter of 2022, which Glassnode also reported on Dec. 3.

Additionally, high realized losses, declining liquidity, and a break below short-term holder cost basis add to the stressful scenario.

Starting with MVRV (market value to realized value), which is a ratio that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap and weights each coin by the price at which it last moved on-chain.

When MVRV pushes above 3.5, the market is historically in euphoria territory. When it falls below 1.0, the market is trading below its aggregate cost basis and is typically at a bear market bottom.

As of press time, MVRV sits around 1.8-2.0. That is well off euphoric highs but also well above the sub-1.0 levels that marked the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

The bear cycle camp reads this as a market that has cooled but has not yet reached the deep value zone. If MVRV compresses toward 1.0, that would confirm a classic bear trajectory.

The SOPR (spent output profit ratio) tells a similar story. SOPR measures whether on-chain coins are being sold at a profit or a loss.

When SOPR is above 1.0, the average coin sold is profitable. When it drops below 1.0, the average coin is underwater.

November’s sell-off pushed SOPR below 1.0 for the first time since summer, signaling that short-term holders were realizing losses.

The depth and duration have some analysts comparing it to early 2022, when SOPR stayed suppressed for months.

The RHODL (realized cap HODL) waves break down Bitcoin’s realized cap by age cohorts. When long-term holders start spending at elevated rates, it typically signals a top.

Recent RHODL data show long-term holder supply has been declining since mid-year, a pattern consistent with distribution into strength.

The November correction accelerated that trend, with older cohorts moving coins on-chain at prices above $90,000.

Miner flows add another layer. Miners are structurally long Bitcoin and tend to hold during bull markets. When miner outflows spike, it signals stress.

CryptoQuant’s miner reserve data shows reserves have been declining since October, and miner wallet balances hit multi-year lows in late November.

Finally, stablecoin liquidity. The bear cycle camp points to declining stablecoin supply on exchanges as a sign that dry powder is leaving the system. The total stablecoin market cap has been flat to down since mid-November.

Without fresh fiat-backed liquidity ready to buy dips, Bitcoin lacks fuel for another leg up.

The middle ground: deep correction, not secular bear

Others see the same stress but stop short of calling a completed cycle top.

SOPR, realized-price bands, and MVRV are no longer in an euphoric zone. Yet, historically, classical bear market bottoms occur much closer to the aggregate realized price than today’s levels.

Additionally, ETF outflows and reduced stablecoin liquidity helped drive the worst two-month drawdown since mid-2022. Yet, Glassnode’s MVRV Z-Score is still not in oversold territory, and whale accumulation around $90,000 suggests the market is at an inflection point rather than clearly in a new secular downtrend.

This camp acknowledges the indicators have cooled but argues the market is still structurally different from prior bear cycles. Bitcoin has not broken its aggregate realized price, which sits around $50,000 to $55,000.

Derivatives open interest reset from $46 billion to $28 billion, flushing out overleveraged longs and setting the stage for a cleaner rally if liquidity improves.

The bull market reset thesis

A Glassnode-based roundup framed the late-November drop into the low-$80,000s as “2025’s strongest BTC buy zone,” noting dense realized-price clusters where long-term holders re-added exposure after forced liquidations and derivatives open interest washed out.

Trakx’s Nov. 28 monthly review says November’s slide “looks like a normal bull cycle pullback, not a new bear market,” arguing that as long as global liquidity continues to rise, the broader digital-asset bull trend should remain intact.

Additionally, open interest has reset, and ETF inflows resumed with a modest $50 million aggregated net inflow for December as of Dec. 3.

In this backdrop, a growing stablecoin supply could support a push back through the $93,000 to $96,000 resistance zone if the Fed delivers.

Global net liquidity: the missing variable

This is where Ki’s call hinges. He argues that “without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle,” explicitly tying on-chain stress to a deteriorating liquidity backdrop.

A Sahm Capital piece on Nov. 25 stressed that, unlike prior cycles, global net liquidity has been falling for years under the weight of inflation, rate hikes, and quantitative tightening, which has “suppressed money flow and upside potential throughout this cycle.”

I/O Fund’s Beth Kindig wrote this week that their model shows global liquidity stalling and “setting up for a reversal,” a pattern they say historically aligns with major Bitcoin tops and suggests we are in the final leg of the multi-year bull rather than the early innings.

On the other side, Bitwise’s early-December outlook argues that global liquidity growth “remains robust” and that valuations show “no evidence of a blow-off phase,” explicitly using that to reject a full bear-market transition.

Glassnode’s new institutional note for the fourth quarter with Fasanara adds a more neutral take: Bitcoin has retraced as global liquidity tightens, but the report focuses on shifting market structure rather than declaring a definitive macro top.

The verdict: conditional bear, not confirmed

The on-chain data shows stress. MVRV has cooled, SOPR has dipped below 1.0, long-term holders have distributed, miners have sold reserves, and stablecoin liquidity has stalled.

Those are all consistent with the opening phase of a bear market.

But they are also consistent with a deep correction within a bull market, especially one in which leverage was high and ETF flows were volatile.

The key difference is what happens next with liquidity.

If global net liquidity continues to contract and the Fed holds rates higher for longer, Ki’s bear cycle thesis gains weight. If liquidity stabilizes or rebounds and ETF inflows resume, the bull reset camp wins.

Right now, the data suggests Bitcoin is at an inflection point, not a confirmed top. The on-chain indicators are flashing yellow, not red. And the liquidity backdrop is contested, with credible voices on both sides.