Arthur Hayes: Tether’s Strategy Depends on Fed Rate Cuts and Poses a Risk to USDT

• Arthur Hayes believes that Tether is focusing on the Fed’s rate cut.
• He warned that a 30% drop in the price of bitcoin and gold could leave Tether without capital.
• That is, it would theoretically make USDT insolvent, as the crypto expert stressed.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, said that the latest audit of Tether indicates that the company expects the Federal Reserve to cut its key rate, which could drastically reduce its interest income.

According to him, this is why the USDT issuer is increasing the share of gold and bitcoin in its reserves — as a hedge against the “falling price of money.”

Hayes stressed that such a strategy carries risks.

He also suggested that “some large holders and exchanges will demand a real-time view of their B/S so they can assess the solvency risk of Tether”.

In his opinion, the situation may attract significant attention from traditional media.

As a reminder, at the end of Q3, the company acquired $1 billion worth of bitcoins, and its net profit since the beginning of the year has reached $10 billion.

At the same time, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed in a commentary to Bloomberg that the company forecasts $15 billion in profit by 2025.

According to Jefferies, Tether has also become one of the world’s largest holders of gold outside the central bank sector. As of the end of September 2025, the company’s reserves amounted to 116 tonnes of gold, which is about the same amount as Hungary and South Korea. The company also relies on tokenised gold as part of its investment products.