The Bitcoin (BTC) Price Could See One More Drop as US-Iran Peace Talks Remain Uncertain

Bitcoin has been on a wild ride. With its price falling rapidly to the low $60,000 level after the attacks on February 28, Bitcoin bounced back swiftly and crossed the $73,000 mark in just one week. This swift bounce-back was enough to alter the sentiment in the market.

From the start of March, the BTC price began to create a higher low pattern, which indicated early buyer participation during each decline. As a result, Bitcoin gained momentum to move into the high $70,000 territory, where it currently trades near $78,300. However, there are still skeptics who think otherwise.

The bull trap that looks like 2022

Tony Research is sounding the alarm. He says the final phase of the bear market is closer than you think. Bitcoin has just entered a relief rally, the same bull trap as 2022. Phase one was the crash, down 54%, already done. 

Phase two is the fake recovery, and he says we are here right now. Phase three is the real bottom, still loading. The analysis compares the current structure to the 2022 cycle, where Bitcoin moved through a relief rally before reaching its actual bottom. 

Retail is buying, whales are unloading. Bear traps wipe out shorts. Bull traps bury longs. The same pattern played out in 2022, and Tony says it is happening again. Before the real bottom, one more painful drop will clean out the last believers.

What the BTC price action says and the Iran factor

The BTC price has stayed mostly within the $60,000-$70,000 bracket during this timeframe. While this reflects stability in Bitcoin’s valuation, it also shows that the cryptocurrency has not yet entered an expansion phase.

Each attempt to push above $80,000 has been met with selling. Resistance is holding. Another detail worth noting is how the BTC price has held up better than traditional markets during this conflict, which supports its growing role as a hedge during global uncertainty. 

But a hedge is not a shield. Geopolitical pressure tends to create sharp movements across risk assets, and Bitcoin is not immune.

The uncertainty regarding the next round of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran is building up pressure. Iran’s reluctance to participate in such negotiations is evident, as Iranian officials have questioned the seriousness of the US on the matter.

Internal divisions add more complexity. The US has extended the ceasefire deadline, which gives both sides time to respond. That extension does not remove the underlying tension. Any escalation could quickly affect global markets, and the BTC price often reacts to such developments.

Where the BTC price goes from here

The BTC price is trading around $78,300. The upper resistance level stands at $80,000. The lower levels of support are $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000. The bull case will be confirmed when BTC breaks above $80,000. The bearish case is a rejection that sends the BTC price down toward $75,000 and then $73,000. 

Tony Research is betting on the bearish case. He sees one more painful drop before the real bottom. The US-Iran peace talks will likely decide which path plays out. CoinCodex's 1-month BTC price prediction places the price at $80,166, above the current level.