TON Technical Analysis Jan 21

TON is trading within a strong downtrend; the price positioned below EMA20, seeking support at RSI 37 level while MACD gives bearish signals. Critical supports at 1.5165 and 1.4200 will be tested, and Bitcoin’s bearish structure carries additional risk for altcoins – a cautious approach is recommended in the short term.

Executive Summary

As of January 21, 2026, TON is trading at 1.54$ with a 1.98% daily loss, and the overall technical picture points to a clear downtrend. The price is stuck below EMA20 (1.68$); Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and resistance is strong at 1.80$. Momentum indicators (RSI 37.16, MACD negative histogram) confirm selling pressure, while volume at 62.88M$ shows limited participation. Multi-timeframe analysis has identified 10 critical levels: 1D shows 2 supports/4 resistances dominant. Bitcoin’s decline around 89K$ increases correlation risk for TON. Strategic outlook is bearish; if 1.5165 support breaks, 1.42$ and 1.025$ targets may come into play, but a close above 1.6241 would signal recovery. Risk/reward ratio is low, wait-and-see approach recommended.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

TON’s market structure has been forming in a clear down channel over recent weeks. On the daily chart, higher highs are not forming while lower lows dominate; this confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. In the short-term (4H) perspective, the price is consolidating in a narrow 1.50-1.58 band, but recovery remains limited without breaking EMA20 (1.68$) and EMA50 (around 1.75$) resistances. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and positions 1.80$ as the primary resistance. On the weekly timeframe, the trendline is broken downward, emphasizing medium-term weakness. Overall trend: Downtrend dominance, but RSI divergence potential could signal a local bottom.

Structural Levels

Main structural supports stand out at 1.5165 (strength score 74/100, near-term test expected) and 1.4200 (71/100, strong swing low). On the resistance side, 1.5570 (64/100, local high), 1.6241 (66/100, EMA21 confluence), and 1.7844 (62/100, trendline) are critical. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) has identified 10 strong levels: 1D with 2S/4R (resistance weighted), 3D neutral, 1W with 3S/2R (support focused). The current price level of 1.54$ is sensitive due to proximity to 1.5165; a breakdown would accelerate downward momentum.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 37.16, approaching the oversold region (below 30) implying reduced selling pressure but bearish momentum persists. No daily RSI divergence, slight bullish divergence observed on 4H – should be monitored for local reaction. MACD histogram is expanding negatively, death cross confirmed below signal line; this shows sellers in control. Stochastic %K/%D around 25/30, oversold signal but should be interpreted bearish with trend filter. Overall momentum: Weak, short-term recovery potential limited.

Trend Indicators

EMA cluster bearishly aligned: Price below EMA20 (1.68$), EMA50/200 death cross completed. Supertrend bearish, trailing stop at 1.80$ resistance. In Ichimoku cloud, price below cloud, Tenkan/Kijun death cross active. ADX at 28, trend strength moderate but DI- dominant. This confluence confirms the downtrend’s solidity; a close above EMA20 (1.68$) would signal trend change.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports: 1.5165 (74/100, volume cluster + Fibonacci 0.618), 1.4200 (71/100, weekly low + pivot). Additional support 1.0250 bearish target (22/100 score, long-term). Resistances: 1.5570 (64/100, short-term high), 1.6241 (66/100, EMA21/quadruple touch), 1.7844 (62/100, channel top). Bullish target 2.1698 (25/100, low probability). Distance between levels narrow (1.51-1.62), expect volatility increase; 1.5165 breakdown triggers cascade. Pivot point analysis R1:1.58, S1:1.50 aligned.

Volume and Market Participation

24-hour volume 62.88M$, 15% lower than previous days – decreasing participation in selling could imply bottom formation but insufficient for trend break. OBV in downtrend, no divergence; CMF negative (-0.12), confirming capital outflow. On 1D chart, volume spikes at resistances (1.62$), weak at supports. Whale activity limited, retail selling dominant. Recovery unsustainable without volume increase; high risk of volume explosion in BTC dump.

Risk Assessment

From current 1.54$, bullish target 2.1698 (RR: 0.41, risky due to low score), bearish 1.0250 (RR: 0.33 downside risk). Stop-loss suggestion: Below 1.5165 (1.48$) for longs, above 1.6241 for shorts. Main risks: BTC break below 88K (altcoin cascade), fakeout in low volume. Volatility 4.2% (high), max drawdown potential 25% (1.025$). Position size limited to 1-2% capital; overall risk: High, bearish bias favors shorts.

Bitcoin Correlation

TON correlates with BTC at 0.85; BTC’s decline to 89.230$ (-2.17%) and bearish Supertrend triggering altcoin selling. BTC supports 88.397$, 86.652$, 84.681$ – expect TON slip below 1.51. BTC resistances 90.944$, 92.502$ if broken, local relief in TON (1.62 test). Dominance increase (BTC dominance) adds pressure on TON; await BTC stabilization. Details for TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

TON’s technical picture is bearish: Downtrend, bearish indicator confluence, and BTC negativity make 1.5165 test inevitable. Downward break opens 1.42$ and 1.025$; upward requires 1.6241/1.78$ break for bullish reversal. Strategy: Short 1.55-1.58 range (target 1.42, SL 1.65), long only on 1.68$ EMA20 break. Wait-and-see until volatility decreases; no news flow, technicals in focus. Long-term HODLers monitor support holds, traders focus on risk management. This holistic analysis provides decision support via multi-timeframe and indicator synthesis.