APT closed the week with a slight 0.44% loss at $1.58; while the downtrend dominates, the $1.51-$1.42 support confluence points to a potential base formation, but Bitcoin’s sideways bearish supertrend signal enforces a cautious market structure for altcoins.
Weekly Market Summary for APT
APT stayed within a narrow $1.56-$1.63 trading range last week and closed the week at $1.58 with a 0.44% decline. Volume profile remained low at $98.71M, indicating market participants are cautiously seeking direction. RSI at 37.67 is stuck in the neutral-bearish zone, while MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram. Trading below the short-term EMA20 ($1.78) leads to a bearish trend filter signal, with $1.96 resistance standing out as the main obstacle. In the big picture, APT is under distribution pressure rather than accumulation; however, multi-timeframe supports ($1.4160 and $1.5170) offer critical confluence points for a potential reversal. In the macro context, Bitcoin’s sideways movement around $90K and bearish supertrend limit altcoin rotation. For position traders, strategic positioning between a $2.39 upside target and $0.72 downside risk should be prioritized this week by calculating risk/reward ratios. Check the APT Spot Analysis page for detailed spot data.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear bearish character. On the weekly chart, APT continues to remain below EMA20 ($1.78) and higher EMA50/200 averages, confirming the strength of the bearish trend. Price pulled back without testing the $1.96 trend filter resistance, maintaining the lower high/lower low pattern in market structure. Momentum indicators (RSI 37.67, MACD negative) sustain the bearish bias without approaching oversold levels. In the market cycle context, APT appears to have entered a consolidation/distribution phase following the rally at the end of 2025; however, the trend remains intact as long as the $1.4160 main support holds. For portfolio managers, this structure justifies a short bias on a monthly horizon, but macro risk appetite (e.g., Fed policies or post-BTC halving cycle) keeps reversal potential alive.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Market phase analysis shows distribution patterns dominating in recent weeks: selling pressure was observed at the upper range ($1.63) alongside declining volume, signaling strong hands preparing to close positions. Volume profile remained low at $98.71M, with POC (Point of Control) stabilizing around $1.58. For accumulation signals, volume increase is expected in the $1.5170-$1.4160 support zone; this area could function as a potential ‘spring’ point in Wyckoff methodology. While distribution phase features (upper shadows, failing rallies) prevail, retail buying on support tests could trigger a shift to accumulation. Strategically, long positions are risky until distribution completes; monitor leverage margins via APT Futures Analysis.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe, 2 supports/2 resistances show strong confluence: $1.5170 (score 65/100) and $1.4160 (66/100) supports overlap with Fibonacci retracement and volume clusters. Resistances at $1.6160 (63/100) and $1.7070 (67/100) block upward breakouts. No RSI divergence, MACD histogram narrowing may signal momentum shift. Daily structure is within a bearish channel; a $1.51 breakdown increases short squeeze risk, while an upper breakout leads to EMA20 ($1.78). Confluence score is high: 1D levels align with 3D.
Weekly Chart View
On the weekly perspective, there are 12 strong levels with 2S/2R (1D:2S/2R, 3D:1S/3R, 1W:2S/2R). The weekly doji-like candle reflects indecision; if price holds above $1.4160 weekly support, transition to accumulation phase is possible. Bearish supertrend active below EMA20, but downside carries measured move potential to $0.72. Upper target $2.3919 (score 48), aligned with channel upper band. Multi-TF confluence makes $1.51 an inflection point: downside breakdown signals bearish continuation, upside carries bull trap risk. Visit the APT and other analyses section for more analysis.
Critical Decision Points
Key levels will define direction: Supports: $1.5170 (high volume, score 65), $1.4160 (major, score 66) – breakdown here initiates downside cascade to $0.7216. Resistances: $1.6160 (score 63), $1.7070 (major, score 67), $1.96 trend filter. Levels between offer R/R 1:3+; short below $1.51, consider partial long above. Market structure says ‘bounce potential as long as $1.4160 holds’.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In Upside Case
Bullish scenario triggered by close above $1.6160: First target $1.7070, then $1.96 EMA20. Upside objective extends to $2.3919 (channel target). Strategy: Confirmed long at $1.51 support, stop below $1.41, partial profit at $1.70. R/R 1:2.5+, position size 2-3% portfolio.
In Downside Case
Bearish scenario on breakdown below $1.5170: Targets $1.4160, then $0.7216 (score 22). Strategy: Short entry below $1.51, stop above $1.62, trailing stop to channel lows. R/R 1:4+, strengthened by BTC bearish confluence. Risk management: Max 1.5% exposure.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $90,730 with -2.38% change, sideways bearish; key supports $89,371/$87,645, resistances $91,012/$92,446. BTC bearish supertrend signal puts altcoins in caution mode: APT correlated to BTC at 0.85%, BTC drop below $89K pushes APT to $1.41 support. BTC breakout above $91K triggers alt rotation, opening path to $2.39. Watch: BTC dom above 52% strengthens APT short bias.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
Next week focus: $1.5170-$1.4160 support test and BTC $89K-$91K range. Volume increase + RSI >45 signals bounce, breakdown triggers short. Trend intact as long as $1.4160 holds; if distribution completes, $0.72 becomes risky. Position traders should wait for confluence, monitor macro news (Fed/ETF flows).
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/apt-weekly-strategy-critical-support-test-in-downtrend-january-20-2026
