Tesla Optimus fuels stock rally; trillion-dollar bets

Investor enthusiasm around tesla optimus is helping push Tesla shares higher as analysts race to quantify the emerging humanoid robot opportunity.

Tesla stock rallies on renewed robot optimism

Tesla shares closed at $454.48 on Thursday, up 1.7% for the day. The move followed a 4.1% rally on Wednesday, when growing excitement about the company’s robotics plans captured Wall Street’s attention.

This was only the 13th time Tesla finished above $450. The prior close at that level came about a month earlier, on November 5. However, the latest surge has a different driver than past moves, with humanoid robots quickly becoming a central narrative.

The latest push began after Barclays analyst Dan Levy highlighted potential White House support for robotics. He pointed to a possible 2026 executive order focused on humanoid robot development that is reportedly under consideration.

Levy argued that advanced robotics are emerging as a key competitive front with China. Moreover, he noted that companies are positioning to secure federal funding and tax incentives aimed at industrial automation and next-generation manufacturing.

The research note immediately boosted interest in Tesla’s Optimus project. Elon Musk has said he plans to start selling Optimus to external customers in 2026, though the product is still in development and remains unproven at scale.

That said, the robot is not yet commercially available. There is still no confirmed pricing, cost structure, or reliable demand data, leaving investors to model the economics with only Musk’s high-level comments as a guide.

Analysts build early models for the Optimus business

Wall Street analysts are now attempting to size the humanoid robot market despite scarce hard data. Baird analyst Ben Kallo built his framework around Musk’s remarks that Optimus unit costs could reach roughly $20,000, with potential gross margins near 50% once the line matures.

Kallo upgraded Tesla to Buy in September and set a $548 price target. However, he did not issue explicit sales forecasts for robots, instead emphasizing that Tesla has multiple long-term growth vectors spanning energy, software, and robotics.

RBC analyst Tom Narayan took a far longer view. He projects about $400 billion in cumulative robot sales by 2050 and values that business at 10 times revenue, a rich multiple that assumes strong market leadership and software-style economics.

After discounting future cash flows back to today’s dollars, Narayan estimates the robot segment is worth $640 billion on a present-value basis. Moreover, that figure represents more than one-third of his overall valuation for Tesla.

His Tesla price target stands at $500, implying a market capitalization above $1.5 trillion. Narayan maintains a Buy rating and argues the long-horizon robot thesis is critical to justifying such a valuation.

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu uses a nearer 2035 horizon. He assumes Tesla can sell 1.25 million robots at $25,000 each, which would generate about $31 billion in revenue by that year if the market develops as expected.

Yu applies a 30-times revenue multiple to that 2035 figure, then discounts the result to reflect time and risk. He concludes the robot operation contributes roughly $111 per share to Tesla’s current equity value, a sizable portion of his sum-of-the-parts model.

His 12-month price target is $470, and he also rates the shares Buy. That said, all three analysts who explicitly model the robot business cluster on the bullish side, reflecting growing optimism about the long-term opportunity.

Musk’s incentives tied to robot volume milestones

Despite the confident spreadsheets, the projections remain highly speculative. Functional humanoid robots are still not available in any meaningful commercial volume, and the pace of technical progress could differ materially from current expectations.

However, Musk has strong financial motivation to push the platform forward. His massive compensation structure, often described as a trillion-dollar package at full value, includes performance milestones directly linked to robot deployment.

Under that framework, Tesla must sell a cumulative one million robots by 2035 for Musk to unlock the robot-related award. The target reinforces how central the humanoid program has become to Tesla’s long-term strategic story.

The more optimistic analyst scenarios imply that hitting one million units may be achievable well before 2035. Some models even envision several million robots in operation by that date, assuming manufacturing scales and customer adoption accelerates.

In that context, the perceived tesla optimus revenue potential is increasingly seen as a major driver of Tesla’s valuation assumptions, even though the product has not yet launched.

Model 3 Standard launch sharpens Tesla’s European pricing strategy

While robot projections dominate the narrative, Tesla is simultaneously reshaping its vehicle portfolio. On Friday, the company introduced the Model 3 Standard in Europe, a lower-priced trim aimed at defending share in an increasingly crowded EV market.

Tesla Europe & Middle East announced the model on December 5, 2025, describing it as “our most affordable Model 3” with ultra-low ownership costs and the brand’s familiar safety features. Moreover, the company highlighted range and practicality to appeal to cost-conscious buyers.

The car offers 534km of range and 682l of trunk space, expanding to 1747l with the rear seats folded. These specifications are designed to compete directly with European and Chinese rivals that are pressing on both price and utility.

Pricing for the Model 3 Standard starts at €37,970 in Germany and 449,990 Swedish crowns in Sweden. Those figures translate to roughly $44,256 and $47,849 respectively, positioning the vehicle as a mid-market option in major European economies.

The U.S. version of the car debuted earlier at $36,990, extending Tesla’s push into more affordable segments. In October, the company also launched a budget version of the Model Y crossover in Europe to reinforce its presence in the region’s best-selling SUV category.

Chinese and European manufacturers continue to unveil cheaper electric vehicles, increasing pressure on Tesla’s margins and market share. That said, Tesla is responding aggressively with a broader range of lower-priced offerings to support volume growth.

In Friday premarket trading, Tesla shares were up about 0.22% at $455.32, suggesting investors remain focused on both the near-term EV lineup and longer-term robotics prospects.

Robots and vehicles converge in Tesla’s long-term story

Tesla’s recent stock move reflects a narrative that now blends electric vehicles, software, and humanoid robots. Moreover, analyst models suggest that robots could eventually rival or surpass auto sales in terms of enterprise value contribution.

For now, the company must still prove it can deliver a commercially viable humanoid platform at scale, while also sustaining EV demand in key regions such as Europe and the United States. However, if early projections around Optimus adoption prove directionally correct, Tesla’s future business mix could look very different by 2035.

In summary, a rare close above $450, bold multi-decade robot forecasts, and the rollout of the Model 3 Standard in Europe together underscore how Tesla is simultaneously managing short-term competition and long-term technological bets.