DEL MAR, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 02: Full Serrano ridden by Joel Rosario #3 wins the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile race on day two of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Del Mar Race Track on November 02, 2024 in Del Mar, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
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This Saturday at Santa Anita Park, the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes returns as a pivotal stop on the road to the Breeders’ Cup. The winner earns an automatic berth into the Breeders’ Cup Classic, making this nine-furlong dirt test a must-watch for racing fans and bettors alike. A competitive field of seven will vie for prestige, purse money, and a guaranteed ticket to Del Mar in November.
Key Contenders
First Mission – The morning-line favorite brings a steady string of top-level performances and tactical versatility, capable of either pressing the pace or settling mid-pack. His consistency makes him the one to beat and a likely anchor for many bettors’ tickets.
Full Serrano – A former Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, this talented runner prepped with a sharp allowance score at Del Mar and has proven stamina beyond a mile. Drawing an outside post means he’ll need a clean break, but his late kick makes him dangerous if the pace gets hot.
Privman – Lightly raced but brimming with potential, this improving colt takes a bold step into Grade 1 company. With strong morning works and a powerful closing style, he’s a live longshot who could upset if the leaders falter.
Gaming – Another Bob Baffert trainee, Gaming has shown flashes of ability in graded company but needs to put everything together to contend. A good trip and patient ride could put him in the mix late.
Nevada Beach – Fresh off a Los Alamitos Derby win, the younger Nevada Beach brings upside and speed. Though lightly tested against older foes, his tactical pace and growth potential make him an intriguing option.
Express Train & Ultimate Gamble – Veteran Express Train thrives at Santa Anita and could pick up pieces if the leaders duel early. Ultimate Gamble showed promise in the Pacific Classic but will need a career-best effort to threaten.
Race Dynamics to Watch
- Pace Scenario: Early fractions will shape the outcome. If Gaming or Full Serrano push a fast tempo, closers like First Mission or Privman could capitalize.
- Trip & Positioning: The first turn is crucial, especially for wide draws such as Full Serrano. Saving ground could be the difference between victory and a minor award.
- Stamina Test: At nine furlongs, miler types must prove they can stretch their speed and stay the distance.
- Form vs. Freshness: Horses coming off recent strong efforts may have an edge over those returning from a layoff.
Picks & Strategy
Top Pick: First Mission — given his form, adaptability, and consistency, he’s the safest choice to challenge for the win.
Main Threat: Full Serrano — if he breaks cleanly and avoids early traffic, his closing kick could make him dangerous.
Value / Exotic Plays: Privman is a high-upside underlay in exotics. Nevada Beach is the wild card—include him in tris or superfectas for upside.
Dark Horse: Express Train — if pace collapses, he could pick up pieces late.
Want the Full Picks?
We’ve got you covered. For full picks across the Santa Anita card — including win, place, show plays and exotic combinations — head over to Racing Dudes. Their expert handicappers provide full-card coverage and top-tier analysis to help you navigate the entire day. Be sure to check out their Free Picks, Best Bets, and Premium Plays sections to get the edge at the windows.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredwelch/2025/09/26/goodwood-stakes-2025-classic-aspirations-on-the-line/
