SoFi Stock Drops 47% After Short-Seller Attack — Time to Buy the Dip?

TLDR

• SoFi stock is down 47% from its November 2025 high, currently trading around $18.83–$19.18
• Muddy Waters Research published a short-seller report on March 17 alleging accounting issues, which management has denied
• Q4 2025 results beat estimates: EPS of $0.13 vs $0.12 expected, revenue of $1.01B, up 39.6% year-over-year
• SoFi added 1 million new members in Q4 2025, a record quarter for the company
• Institutional investors are split — Zurcher Kantonalbank boosted its stake by 223.6%, while insiders were net sellers over the past 90 days

SoFi Technologies ($SOFI) has had a rough 2026. The stock is down 47% from its November 2025 peak, sitting in the high $18–$19 range. That’s a steep drop for a company that was posting record growth numbers just months ago.

SoFi Technologies, Inc., SOFI

The sell-off has been driven by a mix of factors. The broader market hasn’t helped, but the real spark came from a March 17 short-seller report by Muddy Waters Research, which raised concerns about the company’s accounting practices.

SoFi management pushed back hard on those claims, calling them inaccurate. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev also voiced doubts about the report’s conclusions. The stock fell sharply after the report dropped, but has since begun recovering.

Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations

SoFi’s most recent quarterly results, released January 30, were strong. The company posted EPS of $0.13, a penny above the $0.12 consensus. Revenue came in at $1.01 billion, ahead of the $984.75 million estimate and up 39.6% year-over-year.

Adjusted net revenue grew 37% year-over-year. The company also added 1 million new members in Q4, a record. For the current fiscal year, analysts are forecasting EPS of $0.60.

SoFi has set its Q1 2026 EPS guidance at $0.12 and its full-year 2026 EPS guidance at $0.60. Earnings for Q1 are due at the end of April.

The company also announced the launch of a new Home Equity Line of Credit product this week, fully digital and accessible within the SoFi app. It also introduced a Real Estate Advisory Council, bringing in top agents from major brokerages.

Analyst Ratings and Institutional Activity

Wall Street is mixed on SOFI right now. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, seven rate it a Buy, ten a Hold, and three a Sell. The average price target sits at $24.85.

Recent target cuts have been widespread. Barclays dropped its target from $28 to $18 in early April. Goldman Sachs trimmed from $25 to $20. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut to $17 with an underperform rating. Truist lowered to $21.

On the other end, Citizens JMP upgraded to Outperform with a $30 target back in February.

Institutional activity has been a mixed bag too. Zurcher Kantonalbank increased its SOFI position by 223.6% in Q4, adding 610,897 units to own 884,085 total, worth around $23.15 million. Several smaller funds also added to positions.

However, insiders were net sellers over the last 90 days. They sold 208,680 units worth roughly $3.9 million versus buying just 38,900 units worth $705,000. The company’s CTO sold 94,958 units on March 18 at $17.43.

The stock’s 52-week range is $11.64 to $32.73. Its 200-day moving average sits at $23.80, well above the current price. The forward P/E of 24 is more moderate than the trailing P/E of around 50.

The next major catalyst will be Q1 2026 earnings, due at the end of April.

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