Trump Signals Ceasefire Doubt, Markets Turn Volatile

• Trump’s Iran ceasefire warning triggers sharp volatility across oil and crypto markets.
• Bitcoin slips as traders price in geopolitical risk ahead of the April 22 deadline.
• Polymarket shows weak odds for BTC rally, signaling cautious short-term sentiment.

Global markets turned cautious after Donald Trump said the U.S. may not extend the Iran ceasefire beyond Wednesday and would maintain its blockade on Iranian ports without a deal. “I don’t know. Maybe I won’t extend it — but the blockade is going to remain… Unfortunately, we’ll have to start dropping bombs again,” he said, highlighting the risk of renewed hostilities.

The remarks followed limited progress in talks involving Tehran and regional mediators. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had briefly eased tensions. However, mixed signals from both sides reversed sentiment, with Iran warning it could shut the route again if pressure continues. Traders are now positioning for multiple outcomes ahead of the April 22 deadline.

Geopolitics Drives Market Swings

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be an important choke point globally, accounting for about one-fifth of the total oil production in the world. The price of oil has been very volatile in reaction to the latest headlines, whereas risk assets have retraced their gains that were built based on hope for a ceasefire.

Crypto markets tracked the shift in sentiment. Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $76,252, while Ethereum declined around 3% to $2,365, after both reached two-month highs. The pullback reflects renewed geopolitical uncertainty, although both tokens remain up roughly 5% over the past week.

Price action continues to respond closely to geopolitical developments, with gains following signs of de-escalation and declines emerging on renewed conflict risks.

Event Risk and Market Positioning

All eyes are set on the Wednesday expiry, with traders being split between expectations of either an extension or heightened tensions. While an extension could result in another surge towards resistance, a lack of progress could force investors into a broader risk-off sentiment move. Analysts are suggesting that a downside toward $68K is possible amid rising geopolitical concerns.

It is clear from recent market actions that investors are extremely sensitive to any changes on the geopolitical front. Recent events in Iran have seen the daily range of Bitcoin swing by 4-5%, alongside other macro factors, including Fed decisions.

Prediction markets are also cautious. According to data on Polymarket, there is only a 1% chance that Bitcoin will hit its $100,000 target by month-end. This indicates a lack of expectation for further gains in the short term.

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